Uber trades at its lowest valuation since its IPO on fears that autonomous vehicles will make it obsolete, yet it is firing on all cylinders and positioning as the AV distribution layer. It already has 14 AV partners including Waymo, and city-by-city regulation favors its global network. Its driver-rider flywheel gives it 75% US share against Lyft. Uber One's 30 million members spend twice as much and drive 40% of bookings, and free cash flow has gone from negative to strongly positive. x.com 

Uber's trips could keep growing even without a Waymo partnership because the ride-hail market may expand faster than Waymo takes share. Based on estimated inputs and Waymo's reported fleet plans, every modeled scenario has Uber trips growing, though its US trip share falls from about 73% to 69% by Q4 2028 in the target case. The model excludes take rate, pricing and Uber's AV capex. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.com 

Uber is one of the most interesting opportunities in the market, down 31% from its highs while printing more cash. The market treats it as a low-margin business that autonomous driving could disrupt, missing its real moat: distribution. A network of consumers, drivers and merchants is very hard to replicate and lets it add verticals without paying acquisition costs again. Uber also owns about 13% of Grab, down 85% and building financial services on the same model. x.com 

Uber's network could unravel as riders go straight to Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi apps and driver earnings collapse. Uber lobbies against autonomy while telling investors it will win it, and its flagship Waymo partnership has soured. Robotaxi apps are becoming the interface to the car, which a generic broker app cannot replicate. At about 17x earnings, Uber looks overvalued when it may not exist in its current form in 17 years; 5-10x trailing earnings is the most it deserves. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Uber is the toll booth on urban movement: while the market debates whether robotaxis kill it, every autonomous player keeps partnering with Uber for its demand network. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow topped $10 billion for the first time, with gross bookings up 22%. x.com 

Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.com 

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Autonomy could expand the ride market tenfold, giving Uber a long growth runway if it does. That is the true 10x opportunity, like ridesharing's expansion of the taxi market. Uber will be a $1 trillion company by 2035. Improved autonomous-vehicle margins are possible but uncertain. x.com  x.com  x.com