Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
A sharply higher humanoid shipment forecast supports robotics suppliers even as sentiment struggles. JPMorgan now sees 1.8 million units by 2030, about 152% CAGR. Ouster offers broad perception exposure through Rev8, Stereolabs and software; Harmonic Drive makes rotary actuators, Regal Rexnord frameless torque motors and linear actuators, VPG force/torque sensors for joints and grippers, and One Stop Systems rugged edge AI compute for field robots. x.comÂ
Allegro Microsystems, Xometry, Proto Labs and Ceva are underrated ways to play robotics. Allegro makes position sensors, with robotics at 3-4% of FY27 revenue. Xometry runs a marketplace for the custom parts robotics builders need from prototype to production. Proto Labs manufactures along the same path, and its CEO is publicly very bullish on robotics. Ceva licenses edge-AI and wireless connectivity IP. x.comÂ
Scaling humanoids could create a big market for the components in each robot's joints. Bank of America forecasts 10 million annual shipments by 2035. Regal Rexnord makes motors and gears; Allegro MicroSystems sensors and drivers; Timken bearings and gearboxes; Allient motors; Parker Hannifin motion systems; MP Materials rare earth magnets. Allient's smaller size could make humanoid orders matter far more than at giants; Novanta already has humanoid-training servo orders. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Ouster could be one of the best opportunities in robotics because autonomous machines need perception to understand their surroundings before they can act. REV8, Stereolabs cameras and software could serve many platforms without picking a winning robot. Q2 revenue rose 56% to about $54.6M, with over 17,000 sensors shipped; REV8 appears to be moving toward production. About $450M of available funds eases financing risk, but customer concentration, cash conversion and execution remain risks. x.comÂ
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.comÂ
Robotics component suppliers get paid on every robot no matter which maker wins, as capital floods into the sector. Robotics VC hit a record of over $16 billion in a quarter, and Goldman sees the humanoid market growing from under $2 billion to $38 billion by 2035, with the inflection around 2027-28. Nvidia supplies the compute and training platforms, Ambarella edge AI chips, Ouster lidar, Vishay Precision force sensors, and memory makers the memory every robot needs. x.com x.comÂ
Humanoid value sits with suppliers of the hard-to-make parts that repeat in every robot, not the logo makers. Each body has about 28-40 powered joints, and joints are the potential bottleneck: Harmonic Drive's strain wave gears sit in every Optimus joint, and Allient offers US-listed integrated motion. Allegro's magnetic position sensors are a quiet winner, since every joint needs them, and Nidec, the largest motor maker, supplies the muscles. Goldman's scorecard ranks harmonic gears highest. … Show more
Financing strain threatens smaller AI-related plays. Elon Musk says debt markets have nearly closed to firms without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue. Neoclouds, energy, HVAC, electronics and builders will be a much smaller field in a year; its 'guppy' plays can be shorted here toward zero. CoreWeave, IREN and Vertiv look troubled, perhaps Nebius; Ouster, Applied Digital, Ultra Clean, Cipher Digital, WhiteFiber, TeraWulf and IPG Photonics too. x.com x.comÂ
Humanoid production is scaling faster than expected, and the value lies in components robots can't be built without; Figure now makes 24 a day. Vishay Precision Group's Bulk Metal Foil sensing has no real equal in thermal stability and drift. Nabtesco, with ~60% of robot reducers, has the hardest moat, in heavy joints. Harmonic Drive Systems leads strain-wave gears but has slid from ~60% share to 30-40% as Chinese rivals undercut it by 40-60%, though it keeps premium pricing where trust matters. … Show more
Robotics could be one of the biggest investing themes of the next decade, so the opportunity lies in connecting the dots across its ecosystem early. Morgan Stanley estimates the humanoid market could reach $5T by 2050, with nearly 1 billion robots in use. The chain runs from robot makers such as Tesla and Agility Robotics to AI chips from Nvidia and Qualcomm, memory, sensors, edge AI, precision motion and joints, power electronics, batteries, rare-earth magnets and industrial robotics. x.comÂ
Harmonic Drive Systems could lose its leading actuator position, since a rapidly growing market may need simpler products to scale, and its valuation is extremely high. x.comÂ
Robotics may be AI's next frontier, and the bigger opportunity may be everything that makes robots move, not just humanoids. Deploying millions of robots needs motors, sensors, vision, motion control and factory, warehouse and surgical automation. The picks and shovels include Amazon and Symbotic in warehouses, Teradyne, ABB and Fanuc in industrial robots, Rockwell, Honeywell and Parker Hannifin in automation and motion, Cognex, Ouster, Zebra, Intuitive Surgical, Serve and UiPath. x.comÂ
