Johan Ekroth
AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.comÂ
The physical-AI theme is best owned through companies already earning from AI today whose humanoid upside is still unpriced, which means memory, power and substrates rather than robot stocks. The robot should be the option, not the thesis. The picks named for that box include Micron, STMicroelectronics, Soitec, Broadcom and Arm. x.comÂ
Chinese lidar makers Hesai and RoboSense are not walking into a China solar-style trap. Their primary risks are Huawei undercutting them to take market share and advances in non-lidar alternatives. Although Hesai trades at a premium to RoboSense, it is Hesai that faces more of an existential threat. x.com x.comÂ
Financing strain threatens smaller AI-related plays. Elon Musk says debt markets have nearly closed to firms without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue. Neoclouds, energy, HVAC, electronics and builders will be a much smaller field in a year; its 'guppy' plays can be shorted here toward zero. CoreWeave, IREN and Vertiv look troubled, perhaps Nebius; Ouster, Applied Digital, Ultra Clean, Cipher Digital, WhiteFiber, TeraWulf and IPG Photonics too. x.com x.comÂ
The still-robust AI wave will inevitably drive physical AI forward, making Ouster's lidar, cameras and software stack increasingly critical. SK Hynix's strong earnings show that momentum is far from over; physical AI still has substantial runway and has not seen the hype of other AI trades. x.comÂ
Hesai is a supplier to Nvidia's humanoid robot reference platform. It provides LiDAR and actuators to Unitree and Sharpa, the two companies Nvidia chose for Isaac GR00T, including actuators for Sharpa's reference dexterous hand under a cost-plus contract through its new SGI division. The China discount on the stock is getting ridiculous. The proposed SAFE LiDAR Act, which would phase out Chinese LiDAR across the US economy, is a risk, though unlikely to pass. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Hesai looks like the best, cleanest and cheapest exposure to driver assistance and robotics, despite being Chinese. LiDAR adoption is accelerating for L3/L4 in new cars, robotaxis are reaching an inflection point, and consumer and industrial robotics are picking up. Customers include Mercedes, Xiaomi, BYD, Li Auto and nearly all robotaxi operators except Waymo, such as Zoox, Aurora, WeRide, Pony and DiDi, and it is a certified LiDAR partner for Nvidia's Hyperion platform. x.comÂ
Ouster is one of the few US lidar companies with a real moat and pricing power, positioned for physical AI and robotics, which are going to be huge. Below $30 is a level to buy. x.comÂ
Ouster is not a compelling way to play physical AI because lidar is a very crowded space and its edges over rivals look likely to be competed away quickly. There are countless better stocks to take advantage of the physical AI theme. Ouster looks okay but not worth touching, though not to the point of buying puts. x.com x.comÂ
RoboSense could be a long-term winner because it is moving fast to ship all kinds of humanoid robot components, its 'eyes, skin and muscles', well beyond lidar. The short term looks rough, with little said yet about the recall and margins deteriorating in driver-assistance systems. x.comÂ
A sharply higher humanoid shipment forecast supports robotics suppliers even as sentiment struggles. JPMorgan now sees 1.8 million units by 2030, about 152% CAGR. Ouster offers broad perception exposure through Rev8, Stereolabs and software; Harmonic Drive makes rotary actuators, Regal Rexnord frameless torque motors and linear actuators, VPG force/torque sensors for joints and grippers, and One Stop Systems rugged edge AI compute for field robots. x.comÂ
Aeva Technologies' new hyperscaler optical connectivity deal raises risk rather than removing it. The multi-hundred-million-dollar deal faces hurdles before ramping in the second half of 2027, and it is a new product category for a company with $6M of quarterly revenue. The stock has again hit resistance around $28. x.comÂ
