Hesai is a supplier to Nvidia's humanoid robot reference platform. It provides LiDAR and actuators to Unitree and Sharpa, the two companies Nvidia chose for Isaac GR00T, including actuators for Sharpa's reference dexterous hand under a cost-plus contract through its new SGI division. The China discount on the stock is getting ridiculous. The proposed SAFE LiDAR Act, which would phase out Chinese LiDAR across the US economy, is a risk, though unlikely to pass. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com  x.com 

Hesai looks like the best, cleanest and cheapest exposure to driver assistance and robotics, despite being Chinese. LiDAR adoption is accelerating for L3/L4 in new cars, robotaxis are reaching an inflection point, and consumer and industrial robotics are picking up. Customers include Mercedes, Xiaomi, BYD, Li Auto and nearly all robotaxi operators except Waymo, such as Zoox, Aurora, WeRide, Pony and DiDi, and it is a certified LiDAR partner for Nvidia's Hyperion platform. x.com 

RoboSense is becoming a robotics-plus-L3 lidar story, not just an auto lidar maker. Q4 2025 brought its first quarterly profit (RMB104M), with robot units up 2,565% to 48% of volume and margin rising from 23.5% to 28.5% as SPAD-SoC chips replaced FPGAs. Orders support 2–2.6M units in 2026; its 520-line EM4 has a year-plus lead over Hesai, with pricing power in L3. A 2027 profit near RMB1B implies HK$40–55B, 3–4x by end-2027. Risks: robot concentration, top-5 customers ~80%, price war. x.com  … Show more

Western lidar makers Ouster and Aeva stand to fill the vacuum if Chinese rival Hesai is banned in the West. Hesai faces US national-security scrutiny over its expanded Nvidia partnership, after warnings that its sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely; a Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29. Upstream laser suppliers to Western lidar, such as Lumentum and Sivers, would also gain revenue. The news may not matter much while markets are crashing. x.com  x.com 

Robotics looks bullish, but the picks-and-shovels plays are hard to see at this stage, and Ouster is one way in. Ouster is still risky because a lot of Chinese lidar is cheaper. x.com  x.com 

The still-robust AI wave will inevitably drive physical AI forward, making Ouster's lidar, cameras and software stack increasingly critical. SK Hynix's strong earnings show that momentum is far from over; physical AI still has substantial runway and has not seen the hype of other AI trades. x.com 

Hesai is a wonderful company at a great price and is now the top company in lidar. The position is meant to be held for as long as that thesis stays intact. x.com 

Ouster is the US-made lidar alternative for buyers who cannot use the Chinese leaders, Hesai and RoboSense. Hesai is on the Pentagon's Chinese military company list, so defense and drone programs must route around it, and Seneca's wildfire drones just picked Ouster's Rev8. Trailing revenue is $205M, with the latest quarter up 56%, and 14.4x sales is cheap for that growth, though it burned $82M of free cash flow last year. The open question is whether the lockout spreads into commercial robotics. … Show more

Ouster is a long-term hold that should deliver nice gains a year from now, backed by a wave of new deals. They include a 10-year, 100,000-unit-per-year Rev8 lidar supply agreement with Benchmark Electronics, a multi-year autonomous heavy-equipment contract with AIM Intelligent Machines and a drone-platform partnership with Seneca announced Oct 2. Q2 revenue hit $55M, up 56%, on 17,000+ sensors. The weekly chart shows a bull flag retesting support after breaking out of a multi-month base. x.com  … Show more