Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Western lidar makers Ouster and Aeva stand to fill the vacuum if Chinese rival Hesai is banned in the West. Hesai faces US national-security scrutiny over its expanded Nvidia partnership, after warnings that its sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely; a Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29. Upstream laser suppliers to Western lidar, such as Lumentum and Sivers, would also gain revenue. The news may not matter much while markets are crashing. x.com x.comÂ
Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.comÂ
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.comÂ
Wafer-tested VCSEL arrays could erode Lumentum's laser scarcity premium if scale-up links adopt wide, parallel designs. Lumentum's in-rack demo used arrays but does not replace every high-power laser; Credo and ams OSRAM seek approval for a parallel-link standard in 2027. Multiple suppliers would pressure pricing power and margins. Near-term earnings could still benefit from laser shortages, with Lumentum sold out through early 2029. x.comÂ
Western firms replacing China-dependent AI supply chains should be the next big winners. The Chinese transceiver ban is just the start; per @CKCapitalxx, memory makers CXMT and YMTC look like the next domino after FCC bans on Chinese robots and inverters. Beneficiaries span optics (Applied Optoelectronics, Coherent, Lumentum), power and cooling (Vertiv, Vicor, Modine), packaging (Amkor, Onto, Kulicke), servers (Dell, HPE, Super Micro), onsemi, Wolfspeed, MP Materials and Energy Fuels. x.comÂ
Lumentum's 109% year-on-year growth and sold-out capacity through 2029 make selling its AI optics exposure questionable. Bloomberg reported Marvell is in advanced talks to buy it; the appeal depends on the price, especially when holders of an $80 billion Lumentum would become holders of a $320 billion-plus Marvell growing 37%. x.comÂ
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.comÂ
Rising 1.6T switching demand favors optical suppliers, though their execution risks vary. Bank of America says the market could grow ~101% annually through 2030. Marvell's leading DSPs and Lumentum's supply-short 200G EML lasers are lowest risk; Applied Optoelectronics' capacity expansion and Fabrinet's customer concentration make them medium risk. Aeluma remains pre-commercial, while Lightwave Logic's polymer modulators are a high-risk moonshot despite its TSM partnership. x.comÂ
Lumentum and Coherent sit at the center of a multiplicative optical bottleneck, where parts, capacity, yield and customer sign-off each limit output. Next-gen AI clusters need optical interconnect, and McKinsey sees 800G transceiver output 40-60% short of demand through 2027 as the market doubles to $26B in 2026. Nvidia invested $2B each in both to lock in laser supply, and the FCC is drafting curbs on Chinese transceiver imports; Chinese suppliers hold ~60% of optical-component revenue. x.com … Show more
Lumentum and Coherent face a threat from microLED optics, which could replace laser optics with 20x less power and no temperature sensitivity by late 2027. The use case is short-reach, high-volume links under 30 meters. The copper versus optics debate is a distraction, since every AI cluster needs both and Credo now does both while Applied Optoelectronics handles long-haul; the bigger question is what microLED does to laser makers. x.com x.comÂ
Chinese lidar makers Hesai and RoboSense are not walking into a China solar-style trap. Their primary risks are Huawei undercutting them to take market share and advances in non-lidar alternatives. Although Hesai trades at a premium to RoboSense, it is Hesai that faces more of an existential threat. x.com x.comÂ
