Chinese lidar makers Hesai and RoboSense are not walking into a China solar-style trap. Their primary risks are Huawei undercutting them to take market share and advances in non-lidar alternatives. Although Hesai trades at a premium to RoboSense, it is Hesai that faces more of an existential threat. x.com  x.com 

Hesai is a supplier to Nvidia's humanoid robot reference platform. It provides LiDAR and actuators to Unitree and Sharpa, the two companies Nvidia chose for Isaac GR00T, including actuators for Sharpa's reference dexterous hand under a cost-plus contract through its new SGI division. The China discount on the stock is getting ridiculous. The proposed SAFE LiDAR Act, which would phase out Chinese LiDAR across the US economy, is a risk, though unlikely to pass. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hesai is a sell because Chinese companies do not follow US accounting standards or enforcement, leaving financials less transparent and harder to verify, a risk most investors underappreciate. x.com 

Hesai looks like the best, cleanest and cheapest exposure to driver assistance and robotics, despite being Chinese. LiDAR adoption is accelerating for L3/L4 in new cars, robotaxis are reaching an inflection point, and consumer and industrial robotics are picking up. Customers include Mercedes, Xiaomi, BYD, Li Auto and nearly all robotaxi operators except Waymo, such as Zoox, Aurora, WeRide, Pony and DiDi, and it is a certified LiDAR partner for Nvidia's Hyperion platform. x.com 

Ouster has a lot of long-term upside as lidar gains traction, and at a $2.2 billion market cap it could make a Rigetti-like move if lidar takes off, since small starting caps allow outsized gains. It is preferable to Nokia, whose $78 billion market cap limits upside. The wedge breakout has already had its pop, though, so it is not worth chasing now. x.com  x.com 

Hesai is a Chinese company, so the market will apply roughly a 90% discount to it upfront. x.com 

RoboSense is becoming a robotics-plus-L3 lidar story, not just an auto lidar maker. Q4 2025 brought its first quarterly profit (RMB104M), with robot units up 2,565% to 48% of volume and margin rising from 23.5% to 28.5% as SPAD-SoC chips replaced FPGAs. Orders support 2–2.6M units in 2026; its 520-line EM4 has a year-plus lead over Hesai, with pricing power in L3. A 2027 profit near RMB1B implies HK$40–55B, 3–4x by end-2027. Risks: robot concentration, top-5 customers ~80%, price war. x.com  … Show more