Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Ouster has a lot of long-term upside as lidar gains traction, and at a $2.2 billion market cap it could make a Rigetti-like move if lidar takes off, since small starting caps allow outsized gains. It is preferable to Nokia, whose $78 billion market cap limits upside. The wedge breakout has already had its pop, though, so it is not worth chasing now. x.com x.comÂ
Ouster should go much higher in coming years as physical AI arrives, and it just announced the first color lidar. Per @nachunja, it has 10,000 customers with only a few in production, including Google, Amazon, Caterpillar, John Deere and Anduril, and is the only Western lidar company at scale and the only Blue UAS-certified one. It has a healthy balance sheet with profitability near. It is one of two favorite robotics small caps, alongside Vishay Precision Group, and worth adding on pullbacks. … Show more
Ouster is a long-term hold that should deliver nice gains a year from now, backed by a wave of new deals. They include a 10-year, 100,000-unit-per-year Rev8 lidar supply agreement with Benchmark Electronics, a multi-year autonomous heavy-equipment contract with AIM Intelligent Machines and a drone-platform partnership with Seneca announced Oct 2. Q2 revenue hit $55M, up 56%, on 17,000+ sensors. The weekly chart shows a bull flag retesting support after breaking out of a multi-month base. x.com … Show more
Ouster is not a compelling way to play physical AI because lidar is a very crowded space and its edges over rivals look likely to be competed away quickly. There are countless better stocks to take advantage of the physical AI theme. Ouster looks okay but not worth touching, though not to the point of buying puts. x.com x.comÂ
Ouster looks like a trade-of-the-year candidate as robotics becomes a major theme, since its digital LiDAR sensors and perception software serve machines and autonomous systems. The setup is about as strong as it gets, with a breakout target for the next leg of just under $60 at minimum, making it a name not to sell too early. x.comÂ
Ouster's lidar and cameras, which let robots and machines see, are winning steady growth and new deployments. Q2 revenue grew 56% to $55M, its 14th straight quarter of product revenue growth. John Deere's GUSS Automation plans to use its Rev8 lidar, which Ouster calls the first native color lidar, in autonomous orchard machines, and a multimillion-dollar Utah expansion brings its traffic system to nearly 300 intersections and roadway locations. x.comÂ
Ouster is not a buy at its recent price, because even a great business can be a bad investment if you pay too much. The stock has fallen 20% since that call, and stocks often draw the most attention at the worst time to buy. Physical AI remains a very bullish theme, and adding becomes attractive if the price keeps dropping and risk/reward improves. x.comÂ
Ouster is one of the few US lidar companies with a real moat and pricing power, positioned for physical AI and robotics, which are going to be huge. Below $30 is a level to buy. x.comÂ
Ouster could plausibly 10x over 10 years if lidar becomes a standard part of physical AI, because far more machines will interact autonomously with the physical world by 2036. Robots, mines, traffic systems, defense systems and eventually autonomous vehicles all need perception. Ouster is already growing quickly with strong gross margins, its OS1 was the first high-resolution 3D lidar approved under the DoD's Blue UAS Framework, and it trades at about $2B EV. A 10x needs a 26% CAGR. x.comÂ
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon is expanding its Proteus warehouse robots, which use Ouster lidar sensors, to broader warehouse use, and that is very bullish for Ouster. With Ouster's annual revenue around $220M, the expansion could move the needle materially, so a roughly 10% stock gain looks too muted. Ouster is also one of the only high-torque public plays on the physical AI and robotics theme, though its product's competitiveness is not clear. x.comÂ
