Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Ouster is not a compelling way to play physical AI because lidar is a very crowded space and its edges over rivals look likely to be competed away quickly. There are countless better stocks to take advantage of the physical AI theme. Ouster looks okay but not worth touching, though not to the point of buying puts. x.com x.com
Ouster is not a buy at its recent price, because even a great business can be a bad investment if you pay too much. The stock has fallen 20% since that call, and stocks often draw the most attention at the worst time to buy. Physical AI remains a very bullish theme, and adding becomes attractive if the price keeps dropping and risk/reward improves. x.com
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.com
Ouster is infrastructure that almost every robot or physical AI automation needs, and one of few ways to play physical AI in public stocks. It invented colored lidar for robotics, letting one sensor replace two with millimeter precision, and seems to be rapidly signing up customers. A 10% drop on no news made the risk/reward attractive; there is no immediate catalyst, but it is a good one to hold. @jiahanjimliu wrote the best Ouster writeup on X. x.com
Ouster, Applied Optoelectronics, Ondas, AST SpaceMobile, IREN and Oklo are statistically more likely to lose money long term if bought today. Most unprofitable retail favorites end up with horrendous charts years later, and survivorship bias is far worse among them, as the 2021 vintage shows. Big winners often come from unglamorous names like Marathon Petroleum, up over 20x in six years. Applied Optoelectronics may work on real demand, but its CEO has failed for 30 years. Keep such bets small. … Show more
Chinese lidar makers Hesai and RoboSense are not walking into a China solar-style trap. Their primary risks are Huawei undercutting them to take market share and advances in non-lidar alternatives. Although Hesai trades at a premium to RoboSense, it is Hesai that faces more of an existential threat. x.com x.com
Ouster is one of the few US lidar companies with a real moat and pricing power, positioned for physical AI and robotics, which are going to be huge. Below $30 is a level to buy. x.com
Ambarella ran too hard, its multiple expanding to price in a 3–5 year narrative, while next-twelve-month growth decelerates to 10–15%. Its SoCs pair with DRAM and NAND, so spiking memory costs pressure customers' builds and feed back as an indirect demand headwind. New revenue, such as a potential 10-year $800M LTA and $100M of lifetime robotics revenue, is long-dated and not yet secured. Physical-AI stocks will be hammered hardest in any correction, though the setup is interesting longer term. … Show more
Ouster has a lot of long-term upside as lidar gains traction, and at a $2.2 billion market cap it could make a Rigetti-like move if lidar takes off, since small starting caps allow outsized gains. It is preferable to Nokia, whose $78 billion market cap limits upside. The wedge breakout has already had its pop, though, so it is not worth chasing now. x.com x.com
Ouster is what lets robots see, and its StereoLabs acquisition made it the only unified physical AI perception platform, combining LiDAR, stereo cameras, AI compute and sensor fusion. The deal effectively doubled its addressable market and added 10,000 customers. Product revenue has grown 12 straight quarters, sensor shipments rose 48% in 2025, and it has $211 million cash and no debt. CEO Angus Pacala says fewer than 1% of machine makers with autonomy strategies have deployed products. x.com … Show more
Ouster should go much higher in coming years as physical AI arrives, and it just announced the first color lidar. Per @nachunja, it has 10,000 customers with only a few in production, including Google, Amazon, Caterpillar, John Deere and Anduril, and is the only Western lidar company at scale and the only Blue UAS-certified one. It has a healthy balance sheet with profitability near. It is one of two favorite robotics small caps, alongside Vishay Precision Group, and worth adding on pullbacks. … Show more
