RoboSense is becoming a robotics-plus-L3 lidar story, not just an auto lidar maker. Q4 2025 brought its first quarterly profit (RMB104M), with robot units up 2,565% to 48% of volume and margin rising from 23.5% to 28.5% as SPAD-SoC chips replaced FPGAs. Orders support 2–2.6M units in 2026; its 520-line EM4 has a year-plus lead over Hesai, with pricing power in L3. A 2027 profit near RMB1B implies HK$40–55B, 3–4x by end-2027. Risks: robot concentration, top-5 customers ~80%, price war. x.com  … Show more

The still-robust AI wave will inevitably drive physical AI forward, making Ouster's lidar, cameras and software stack increasingly critical. SK Hynix's strong earnings show that momentum is far from over; physical AI still has substantial runway and has not seen the hype of other AI trades. x.com 

Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com  x.com 

A sharply higher humanoid shipment forecast supports robotics suppliers even as sentiment struggles. JPMorgan now sees 1.8 million units by 2030, about 152% CAGR. Ouster offers broad perception exposure through Rev8, Stereolabs and software; Harmonic Drive makes rotary actuators, Regal Rexnord frameless torque motors and linear actuators, VPG force/torque sensors for joints and grippers, and One Stop Systems rugged edge AI compute for field robots. x.com 

VPG and Ouster gain a second demand channel as cars become robots on wheels: ADAS uses the same perception stack of cameras, lidar, radar and depth sensors as humanoids. VPG's strain gauges have been in automotive sensors for decades, a floor under its humanoid upside, making it the anchor, while Ouster adds lidar volume as OEM programs scale. With auto and humanoid exposure, forward earnings at 30-35x imply 3-5x over three to five years. x.com 

Hesai looks like the best, cleanest and cheapest exposure to driver assistance and robotics, despite being Chinese. LiDAR adoption is accelerating for L3/L4 in new cars, robotaxis are reaching an inflection point, and consumer and industrial robotics are picking up. Customers include Mercedes, Xiaomi, BYD, Li Auto and nearly all robotaxi operators except Waymo, such as Zoox, Aurora, WeRide, Pony and DiDi, and it is a certified LiDAR partner for Nvidia's Hyperion platform. x.com 

Robots will inevitably scale across all kinds of applications, and picks-and-shovels suppliers are the way to invest now. Nvidia, Teradyne and Symbotic are the obvious plays. Less-noticed names cover each robot function: Ouster's lidar as the eyes, Vishay Precision Group's force and torque sensors for touch and balance, Ambarella's edge AI chips as the brain, and Regal Rexnord's motors, actuators and bearings as the muscle. Short-term prices may fluctuate with the macro. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

It is far too early to invest in robotics, and ETFs such as BOTZ and ROBO are marketing wrappers full of legacy industrial firms and unprofitable startups. Teradyne's robotics segment brought in only $89M and cut 400 jobs, while ABB is spinning off its 12%-margin robotics unit. Humanoids still cost over $200k versus the $50-75k needed for mass use, a level projected for 2050. AI infrastructure spending is crowding out robotics capex; the alpha lies in the AI supply chain. x.com  x.com 

Hesai is a supplier to Nvidia's humanoid robot reference platform. It provides LiDAR and actuators to Unitree and Sharpa, the two companies Nvidia chose for Isaac GR00T, including actuators for Sharpa's reference dexterous hand under a cost-plus contract through its new SGI division. The China discount on the stock is getting ridiculous. The proposed SAFE LiDAR Act, which would phase out Chinese LiDAR across the US economy, is a risk, though unlikely to pass. x.com  x.com  x.com 

RoboStrategy gives retail investors pre-IPO exposure to leading US humanoid robot makers, and its chart is coiled for a breakout. CEO Andrew Kang named Tesla Optimus, Figure AI and Apptronik his top three American humanoid plays from 112 startups; Figure AI and Apptronik are among its largest disclosed holdings. He cited Figure 03 robots sorting a quarter-million packages over 200 hours without a major glitch. Price has squeezed into a symmetrical triangle since July, with $29.50 as the trigger. … Show more