Ross Gerber
CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, Portfolio Manager of GK ETF
SpaceX's valuation rests on distant future expectations rather than its current business, per a Bloomberg discussion of the IPO. Bloomberg's reporters note SpaceX pitched a $26.5 trillion AI TAM spanning terrestrial and orbital data centers, which critics call pie in the sky, and Musk's pay is tied partly to a Mars colony. In 2025, Starlink-led connectivity was about 61% of revenue, space 22% and AI 17%. Anthropic pays $1.25B a month and Google $900M+ for compute, but both can exit in 90 days. api.omny.fmÂ
SpaceX's earnings are nothing phenomenal against its $2 trillion valuation. Its P/E is 2,000 and P/S is 170, with $4.4 billion in profits after losing that much in Q1 2026; another $2 trillion company makes $50-60 billion in net profit. x.comÂ
NVIDIA's projected earnings growth could support substantial upside without an enormous multiple. At $221.97 it trades at 10.4x estimated FY2029 earnings; even at $350, nearly 58% higher, it would trade near 16.4x. Estimates imply roughly 130% cumulative EPS growth over the next two fiscal years and may be conservative. SpaceX and Meta earnings look bullish for future chip demand. Slower AI spending, margin pressure or competition could undermine the estimates. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.comÂ
SpaceX already prices in its Anthropic and Google compute contracts at 56x forward EV/sales. Even after a 30% drop it would still lead every US megacap at roughly 39x; Palantir is second at 34x, and every other top-100 name is below 20x. x.comÂ
SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX at a $3 trillion market cap is the most expensive large-cap stock ever. That valuation makes it the world's fourth most valuable company. x.comÂ
Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.comÂ