CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
GE Vernova is not a cyclical gas-turbine maker, as shown by customers paying deposits for delivery slots in 2032. GLJ Research's September 14 sell note set a $470 target on that cyclical thesis; the stock dipped 10%, fully recovered and now trades above $1,000, while the other 37 analysts average over $1,200. Two days after the note, GE Vernova's CEO said it is selling 2032 slots, and cyclicals do not take deposits six years out. x.comÂ
GE Vernova turns the turbine bottleneck into a business model, filling its production calendar years ahead with cash deposits. It holds nearly half the North American market by megawatt, and customers reserve factory slots with deposits before converting them into firm orders. Last quarter it signed 18 GW of reservations, converted 10 GW into firm orders and shipped 3 GW. The best bear case is that order growth hits a ceiling now, with most of 2027-30 output and half of 2031 booked by end-2026. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's 2030 earnings base has a floor that the equipment-cyclicality debate ignores, because every gigawatt shipped from its 116 GW backlog attaches a 20-plus-year service annuity. Free cash flow equal to roughly 20% of its market cap over four years is about a 5% annual yield, which alone justifies much of its premium multiple to the sector. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's gas business is strengthening, just days after people were fading the stock. Per a quoted report, it expects gas capacity additions to grow about 50% by year-end, with second-half contract commitments now expected to exceed its 20GW guidance and Q4 tracking above Q3. x.comÂ
GE Vernova is highly expensive, and infrastructure booms always look unstoppable until they stop; a cyclical boom-bust stock should not need a three-years-out view to reach a 20 P/E. Gordon Johnson's $470 price target is right in theory. Barring a crash, it is probably among the safer expensive stocks through year end as fund managers pad top holdings, but the cycle will pass, as similar ones did before the financial crisis. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's turbines and grid equipment make it a clear winner from the AI data-center power crunch. Q3 equipment sales rose 42%, total revenue 27% and operating income 281% as margins expanded. Grade: A. x.comÂ
GE Vernova and the other big turbine makers now behave like memory makers, restricting output and raising prices rather than repeating their 1990s-2000s boom-bust cycle. That discipline has been great for their stocks, and GE Vernova is sold out until 2030. Unlike memory buyers, though, power customers have alternatives, so the congested turbine backlog leaves the field ripe for disruption by behind-the-meter generation. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's buybacks look poorly priced relative to its borrowing cost. At $895, repurchases yield about 2.6% on my 2027 EPS estimate of $23.09 and 3.5% on 2028 earnings, below the 3.8% after-tax cost of debt issued in February. The quarter was strong, but this buyback pace is hard to like. x.comÂ
The AI power trade is starting to separate promises from electrons, favoring GE Vernova over NuScale Power because the market wants power now, not in 2033. GE Vernova has a $176bn backlog with gas turbines effectively sold out for years. NuScale reported just $75,000 of revenue last quarter, thousands not millions, then filed to sell another $750m of stock. x.com x.comÂ
Durable demand makes these eight companies attractive at forward earnings multiples below their historical medians. Vistra has long power deals; ASML expects demand above capacity in 2027-28; GE Vernova's turbines are sold out through 2028. Eaton expects data-center deliveries from 2028. Waste Management leads garbage collection; American Tower has $23B in scheduled rent, Linde $64B in commitments, and BWX Technologies an $8.4B backlog backed by Navy demand. GE Vernova's multiple is still high. … Show more
GE Vernova is a cyclical gas-turbine manufacturer priced as a secular compounder, the basis for a sell rating. Per @StockWorthyApp, the stock fell 8.62% in a day and 9.43% over a week on concerns about an AI development slowdown. x.comÂ
Gas turbines, not nuclear or renewables, are the real AI infrastructure bottleneck, and GE Vernova owns that chokepoint. Its order book is full through 2029 and now booking into 2031, turbine prices are up 300% in three years to over $250 million each, and AI and data centers make up 20% of its gas power orders. Microsoft bought seven turbines for 2.7GW in Texas, and xAI's Colossus and OpenAI's Stargate already run GE Vernova turbines. Nuclear headlines are noise; gas powers the build now. x.comÂ
