Trader C0bb
Derivatives Trader & Portfolio Manager, Creator of G-Ron TrendCloud
The AI power trade is starting to separate promises from electrons, favoring GE Vernova over NuScale Power because the market wants power now, not in 2033. GE Vernova has a $176bn backlog with gas turbines effectively sold out for years. NuScale reported just $75,000 of revenue last quarter, thousands not millions, then filed to sell another $750m of stock. x.com x.comÂ
GE Vernova's turbines and grid equipment make it a clear winner from the AI data-center power crunch. Q3 equipment sales rose 42%, total revenue 27% and operating income 281% as margins expanded. Grade: A. x.comÂ
Gas turbines, not nuclear or renewables, are the real AI infrastructure bottleneck, and GE Vernova owns that chokepoint. Its order book is full through 2029 and now booking into 2031, turbine prices are up 300% in three years to over $250 million each, and AI and data centers make up 20% of its gas power orders. Microsoft bought seven turbines for 2.7GW in Texas, and xAI's Colossus and OpenAI's Stargate already run GE Vernova turbines. Nuclear headlines are noise; gas powers the build now. x.comÂ
GE Vernova is highly expensive, and infrastructure booms always look unstoppable until they stop; a cyclical boom-bust stock should not need a three-years-out view to reach a 20 P/E. Gordon Johnson's $470 price target is right in theory. Barring a crash, it is probably among the safer expensive stocks through year end as fund managers pad top holdings, but the cycle will pass, as similar ones did before the financial crisis. x.comÂ
Demand for AI power is accelerating, and power is one of the AI bottlenecks where GE Vernova is positioned. Its Q1 2026 new orders rose 71% year over year, led by equipment orders up 106%, and the quarter alone exceeded the first three quarters of 2025 combined. x.comÂ
GE Vernova and the other big turbine makers now behave like memory makers, restricting output and raising prices rather than repeating their 1990s-2000s boom-bust cycle. That discipline has been great for their stocks, and GE Vernova is sold out until 2030. Unlike memory buyers, though, power customers have alternatives, so the congested turbine backlog leaves the field ripe for disruption by behind-the-meter generation. x.comÂ
GE Vernova is a cyclical gas-turbine manufacturer priced as a secular compounder, the basis for a sell rating. Per @StockWorthyApp, the stock fell 8.62% in a day and 9.43% over a week on concerns about an AI development slowdown. x.comÂ
GE Vernova is the best-in-class AI-power play heading into earnings, driven by AI data-center power demand and its gas-turbine backlog. The Street wants another full-year guidance raise, and the stock is down about 13% from its $1,196 all-time high. It ranks among the highest-conviction names of the week alongside Alphabet. The only risk is a 67x forward multiple that already prices in a lot. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's gas business is strengthening, just days after people were fading the stock. Per a quoted report, it expects gas capacity additions to grow about 50% by year-end, with second-half contract commitments now expected to exceed its 20GW guidance and Q4 tracking above Q3. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's buybacks look poorly priced relative to its borrowing cost. At $895, repurchases yield about 2.6% on my 2027 EPS estimate of $23.09 and 3.5% on 2028 earnings, below the 3.8% after-tax cost of debt issued in February. The quarter was strong, but this buyback pace is hard to like. x.comÂ
GE Vernova sits at the center of the most capital-intensive buildout in a generation because AI data centers need massive power and it builds the gas turbines that make it. Every new hyperscaler data center is effectively a new order. Its backlog is $150B and already booked, orders rose 71% last quarter, and Q1 2026 free cash flow exceeded all of 2025's. It has zero debt and $8B in cash, doubled the dividend, expanded buybacks to $10B, and targets $44-45B of revenue in 2026 and $56B in 2028. … Show more
