Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF
Super League Enterprise looks overvalued after jumping 146% to above $6 on Metaplanet's plan to invest 2,100 bitcoin to launch a US bitcoin treasury platform. Its net asset value comes to about $2.98 a share, depending on the warrants, consistent with Metaplanet paying about $3 a share, so buyers should beware. x.com
Metaplanet should get a nice reboot from its board's decision to cancel 41% of the shares tied to its Series 10 stock acquisition rights, resetting the conversion ratio to its pre-September 2025 level. Per CEO Simon Gerovich's shareholder letter, the move lifts Bitcoin per fully diluted share by about 8.8% and is meant to show management is aligned with shareholders. The stock should be back over $2 very shortly, as @HermesLux also says, with Super League Enterprise as rocket fuel. x.com x.com
Metaplanet's new convertible bond gives up far more in conversion value than its zero coupon saves. Strategy sold the same instrument at roughly 5x NAV in 2024; Metaplanet is selling barely above 1x. The conversion price is not yet set, and the CEO is lending 55 million personal shares to the bookrunners on undisclosed terms. Those additions compound concerns about its five warrant series, convertible preferred and management option pool. x.com x.com
Super League Enterprise's much smaller market cap gives it a better chance of greater price appreciation than Metaplanet, even with expected dilution. It is more speculative, though, so splitting exposure 50/50 might be safer. x.com
SDEV is going to end in tears because it trades at 3.3x fully diluted mNAV. A move closer to 1x mNAV would put it at about 89 cents a share. x.com x.com
Hyperscale Data trades at a large discount to its net asset value for a reason. It lost $32 million last quarter and $75 million last year, has about $50 million in cash and equivalents, and faces significant share dilution. The company reported 687 bitcoin, about $94 million in combined bitcoin and cash, Q1 revenue up 76% to $44 million and a planned $5 million tender offer. x.com
Super League Enterprise, becoming Metaplanet's Superplanet, could be the most convex vehicle for bitcoin upside thanks to heavy leverage and a tiny float. Metaplanet contributes 2,100 BTC plus cash for about 95.7% ownership under a five-year lockup, leaving scarce tradable shares. After the sell-off it trades near 1.0x pro-forma mNAV. Metaplanet can inject up to $210M of preferred capital without new common shares and plans US digital-credit preferreds, if everything goes to plan. x.com x.com … Show more
