Metaplanet's Q3 bitcoin sale and buyback revealed a lack of transparency and values misaligned with shareholders', after the Series 10 stock-rights episode. On Aug 12 CEO Simon Gerovich wrote that no bitcoin had been sold; nine days later 10,000 BTC began moving from its published addresses to Coinbase Prime, and the sale was disclosed only on Oct 5. Its shares will likely recover when bitcoin surges, but other companies are better positioned morally, structurally and reputationally. x.com  x.com 

Cipher Mining's convertible notes cap intermediate-term upside at around $22. Raising $775M through an ATM while shares were in the $20s would have caused less dilution and avoided forward share-price risk; doing this deal at $11 instead was terribly timed. The stock is not worth touching here. x.com  x.com 

Metaplanet's zero-interest financing lets it buy back stock and lift bitcoin per share without selling its coins. It just raised $329m in five-year euro-yen convertibles, with $149m for bitcoin-backed loan repayment and up to $179m for repurchases starting tomorrow. It holds 44,000 BTC; this is a bitcoin treasury play half of crypto Twitter is overlooking. x.com 

Super League Enterprise's much smaller market cap gives it a better chance of greater price appreciation than Metaplanet, even with expected dilution. It is more speculative, though, so splitting exposure 50/50 might be safer. x.com 

Super League Enterprise, becoming Metaplanet's Superplanet, could be the most convex vehicle for bitcoin upside thanks to heavy leverage and a tiny float. Metaplanet contributes 2,100 BTC plus cash for about 95.7% ownership under a five-year lockup, leaving scarce tradable shares. After the sell-off it trades near 1.0x pro-forma mNAV. Metaplanet can inject up to $210M of preferred capital without new common shares and plans US digital-credit preferreds, if everything goes to plan. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Metaplanet is an incredible setup after going from the most loved bitcoin treasury company to the most hated in about a year. It still holds 43,000 BTC yet trades at just 0.84x mNAV, with perpetual preferreds coming online soon. x.com 

Cipher Mining's powered land can attract interest-free capital even when its shares fall. Its $1B 0% convert gives buyers the right to convert above today's price, while convert-arbitrage hedges explain most of the day's 12% drop. Holders can demand par in 2030, so if the stock stalls, free money becomes real debt. x.com 

Strategy keeps diluting common shareholders with no end in sight, so bitcoin bulls are better off owning bitcoin directly. It sold another $544M of MSTR through its ATM last week, making its $25M STRC repurchase mere signaling, and bitcoin per share has fallen since June 1. Dilution makes it improbable the shares reach conversion on billions of convertible debt, and larger bitcoin sales grow likelier as the premium compresses, probably alongside a BTC drop. An FTX-style collapse is not expected. … Show more

Metaplanet's management and shareholders are now much better aligned after the company cut the controversial Series 10 award by 131M shares, or 41%, including about 79M from CEO Simon Gerovich, a $123M forfeit. Remaining exercises move to 2029-31, the plan to recycle legacy options is scrapped, and extra compensation from share issuance after September 2025 is stripped out. Bitcoin per effective diluted share rises 8.8% mechanically as a result. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's mNAV has dropped below 1, which will make it much harder to issue new shares. The company is valued at just $29.5 billion despite holding over $51 billion of bitcoin, as investors who once treated it like a leveraged bitcoin ETF, issuing shares to buy more bitcoin at a premium, now doubt the whole structure amid serious dilution. x.com  x.com