Strategy's structure forces it to sell bitcoin into its own drawdown. It needs dollars for preferred obligations and can either sell equity or sell bitcoin. With MSTR down 83% from its high, issuing stock costs far more shares, and since the stock falls with bitcoin, the equity route gets expensive exactly when bitcoin is weak. This week it did both, selling 1,638 BTC at $63,957 against a $75,419 cost basis and issuing $290.6M of stock. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Strategy is a debt trap disguised as genius: it keeps buying bitcoin with debt and preferred stock, yet bitcoin generates no income to service those obligations. Like a man buying rent-free houses on credit cards, it looks brilliant while prices rise and lenders keep saying yes, with the MSTR premium acting as that willing lender. If bitcoin falls and funding dries up, it is left to sell into a falling market, borrow at worse rates or dilute shareholders on ugly terms. x.com 

Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com  x.com 

Strategy common holders have been endlessly abused and diluted so Michael Saylor can keep his Ponzi afloat and avoid selling bitcoin, with the company issuing MSTR shares to raise USD cash. x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy may be forced to sell bitcoin because its STRC preferred has hit a record low of $83, well under its $100 par. That discount says the dividend is too low, and raising it means more cash out the door. Strategy has funded that cash by selling MSTR shares, but the premium that made dilution easy is almost gone, leaving bitcoin sales as the remaining option. x.com