Rezo
Co-Founder & General Partner of BR Capital, HFT/Institutional DeFi
Strategy's structure forces it to sell bitcoin into its own drawdown. It needs dollars for preferred obligations and can either sell equity or sell bitcoin. With MSTR down 83% from its high, issuing stock costs far more shares, and since the stock falls with bitcoin, the equity route gets expensive exactly when bitcoin is weak. This week it did both, selling 1,638 BTC at $63,957 against a $75,419 cost basis and issuing $290.6M of stock. x.comÂ
Strategy is a poor product to own in a bitcoin bear market because it is a leveraged credit structure, not an ETF: preferred shares with fixed dollar dividends sit on top of its bitcoin. Its sales are not capitulation: the USD reserve grew to $3.75B, covering over two years, convertible debt fell 18%, it sold under 0.5% of its stack and holdings are up 25% this year. But its $75,476 average cost tops bitcoin's $63-65K, so it is selling below cost. It is probably still good for bitcoin. x.comÂ
Strategy keeps diluting common shareholders with no end in sight, so bitcoin bulls are better off owning bitcoin directly. It sold another $544M of MSTR through its ATM last week, making its $25M STRC repurchase mere signaling, and bitcoin per share has fallen since June 1. Dilution makes it improbable the shares reach conversion on billions of convertible debt, and larger bitcoin sales grow likelier as the premium compresses, probably alongside a BTC drop. An FTX-style collapse is not expected. … Show more
Strategy's latest share sale sets up another bitcoin bid but keeps diluting MSTR holders until buying restarts. It sold 18.26M MSTR shares for about $2B: $136M to buy back STRC, $300M to the dividend reserve and $1.59B to a flexible cash pool that can buy bitcoin. Its BTC sale near $64K repaired the financing machine after STRC fell below $100; it was not a bearish call. Meanwhile more shares chase the same 840,447 BTC. Watch STRC reclaiming $100 (now $97) and where the $1.59B goes. x.comÂ
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.comÂ
Strategy is choosing to sell its expensive shares rather than its bitcoin to fund itself. From August 17-23, 2026, it sold 18.26 million MSTR shares for $2.01B, using part of the cash to repurchase STRC, replenish its USD Reserve and set up a new USD cash reserve. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy is in the worst possible position, with Michael Saylor now down $13.7 billion, about 20%, on its bitcoin bet. STRC needs money to be rescued, and selling bitcoin to fund it would hurt both bitcoin and Strategy badly. Only a sudden sharp bitcoin rally looks able to save it. x.comÂ
Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy is a debt trap disguised as genius: it keeps buying bitcoin with debt and preferred stock, yet bitcoin generates no income to service those obligations. Like a man buying rent-free houses on credit cards, it looks brilliant while prices rise and lenders keep saying yes, with the MSTR premium acting as that willing lender. If bitcoin falls and funding dries up, it is left to sell into a falling market, borrow at worse rates or dilute shareholders on ugly terms. x.comÂ
Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.comÂ
Strategy is undervalued because Bitcoin is here to stay regardless of price swings, and the stock resembles closed-end funds that fell 90% in the 1929 crash yet made patient buyers' families rich. Peter Schiff notes its $29.54B market cap sits below its roughly $50B of Bitcoin holdings. x.comÂ
Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com x.comÂ
