Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Strategy's structure forces it to sell bitcoin into its own drawdown. It needs dollars for preferred obligations and can either sell equity or sell bitcoin. With MSTR down 83% from its high, issuing stock costs far more shares, and since the stock falls with bitcoin, the equity route gets expensive exactly when bitcoin is weak. This week it did both, selling 1,638 BTC at $63,957 against a $75,419 cost basis and issuing $290.6M of stock. x.com 

Strategy keeps diluting common shareholders with no end in sight, so bitcoin bulls are better off owning bitcoin directly. It sold another $544M of MSTR through its ATM last week, making its $25M STRC repurchase mere signaling, and bitcoin per share has fallen since June 1. Dilution makes it improbable the shares reach conversion on billions of convertible debt, and larger bitcoin sales grow likelier as the premium compresses, probably alongside a BTC drop. An FTX-style collapse is not expected. … Show more

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is in the worst possible position, with Michael Saylor now down $13.7 billion, about 20%, on its bitcoin bet. STRC needs money to be rescued, and selling bitcoin to fund it would hurt both bitcoin and Strategy badly. Only a sudden sharp bitcoin rally looks able to save it. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy is undervalued because Bitcoin is here to stay regardless of price swings, and the stock resembles closed-end funds that fell 90% in the 1929 crash yet made patient buyers' families rich. Peter Schiff notes its $29.54B market cap sits below its roughly $50B of Bitcoin holdings. x.com 

STRC, the preferred stock tied to Strategy, is a Ponzi-like structure that will be Strategy's downfall unless it is shut down. The structural problem cannot be fixed while it exists, and management's stubbornness risks a massive loss of confidence in Strategy. If Strategy sells bitcoin to cope, lower bitcoin prices could follow in a vicious cycle. As long as STRC exists, believers in bitcoin should just own bitcoin. x.com  x.com  x.com