Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Uranium prices must rise because utilities are not contracting enough to keep their own reactors running. About 116 million lbs have been signed in long-term contracts against a replacement level of 200 million lbs; existing mines cannot cover the gap, and new mines will not be built until economics justify them. Higher prices let miners justify capex and close the supply gap. Overexposure to uranium and to mining is the risk to manage. x.com
Uranium faces a huge demand surge in the next 12–24 months because utilities are far behind on locking in future supply. The existing reactor fleet alone needs about 900M lbs by 2035 and 2B lbs by 2040, before new demand from SMRs, the Three Mile Island restart, Big Tech nuclear deals and policy tailwinds. Mine supply is expected to fall about 20% short of demand for roughly a decade. x.com
A new uranium rally looks set to start soon. Per Goldman Sachs, uranium is another commodity bull market, driven by about 20 new US reactors over the next two decades, reactor restarts and longer reactor lives, while supply keeps disappointing and a 32% supply deficit is expected by 2045. x.com x.com
Uranium and nuclear stocks look to have bottomed as AI drives record demand for nuclear power and carbon goals. Google signed a major power deal with Constellation Energy, adding 890 MW of nuclear capacity in PJM, and France expects EU approval to subsidize six new reactors totaling about 10 GW. The IEA sees global electricity use rising about 5,400 TWh by 2030, and Goldman Sachs estimates a 2.3 billion-pound uranium deficit through 2045. Fall seasonality and a double bottom add support. x.com … Show more
Uranium has been trading terribly, and many longs are true believers who need to be disappointed before it has its time, even as energy security grows more important. x.com
Uranium is a conviction trade, so short-term price action should be ignored. Demand for new nuclear power keeps building: per @quakes99, Amazon signed a $3B, 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy that adds 190 MW of new nuclear generation at Calvert Cliffs in Maryland. x.com
Uranium and its fuel supply chain look preferable to SMR developers because fuel demand continues throughout a reactor's operating life, while an SMR is largely a one-off build. Reliable fuel supply can be hard to secure, giving suppliers a strong position; SMR hardware carries manufacturing execution risk and thin margins. x.com
Uranium faces a hidden supply crisis that could lift spot prices from about $87 to $200 a pound by 2027 or 2028. Demand of about 90,000 tons a year exceeds 60,000 tons of production, a gap covered by utility inventories now down to about two years. Some 200 new reactors planned by 2040 would add 32,000 tons of demand, while Kazakhstan, 45% of supply, plans to send all output to China and Russia from 2028. Russia also holds 60% of enrichment capacity and could embargo exports. x.com
Uranium faces a 10-20-year structural shortage, not a short cycle, and Cameco's reach across the nuclear value chain extends the benefit beyond price. Goldman Sachs projects about 20 new US reactors, restarts and longer reactor lives through 2045, with a 32% supply deficit. Fuel is only 5-10% of plant operating costs, so utilities prioritize securing supply, lifting contract prices. Cameco spans mining, conversion, fuel services and Westinghouse. New mines or policy shifts could ease the gap. … Show more
Uranium stocks remain attractive even in an equities bear because commodities and equities tend to alternate leadership over long cycles, while uranium's projected supply deficit extends into the 2040s. Commodities had reached historically undervalued levels against equities when last checked and are due for a major relative resurgence, probably as equities blow off then crash. Uranium is even more bullish than the broader commodity case: a major equity crash would not erase its deficit. x.com
Uranium's shortage is only going to get worse in the coming years, making it one of the most interesting investment trends for the next few years. An AI system flagged the trend and identified three public companies set to benefit. x.com
Uranium needs gigantic investment because the spread of nuclear energy requires it, and it is not too late to buy in. The Global X Uranium ETF offers exposure through top holdings such as Cameco, Oklo, Uranium Energy, Energy Fuels, Nano Nuclear, NuScale Power, Denison Mines and Centrus Energy. x.com x.com x.com
