Uranium has been trading terribly, and many longs are true believers who need to be disappointed before it has its time, even as energy security grows more important. x.comÂ
Arrakis Global
Global Thematic Fund Manager
Uranium Energy is a steal as a debt-free US uranium producer, and it is the kind of company a hyperscaler could buy to lock in power. Uranium is the best 24/7 power there is, needing no sun or wind. The shares trade around $9 after being above $20 earlier this year. x.comÂ
Nuclear power is the long-term answer to AI's energy needs, best owned in tiers by risk. Constellation, with 20-year Microsoft and Google contracts, and BWX Technologies, a 2.6 book-to-bill reactor servicer, offer steady 15-30% a year. Cameco, Centrus, Oklo and X-Energy target 2-5x; Oklo and X-Energy are pre-revenue bets on 14GW and 5GW pipelines. Uranium Energy, US uranium independence, ASP Isotopes, HALEU enrichment for SMRs, and Ur-Energy, pure uranium leverage, are 10x-or-zero bets. x.comÂ
Uranium stocks remain attractive even in an equities bear because commodities and equities tend to alternate leadership over long cycles, while uranium's projected supply deficit extends into the 2040s. Commodities had reached historically undervalued levels against equities when last checked and are due for a major relative resurgence, probably as equities blow off then crash. Uranium is even more bullish than the broader commodity case: a major equity crash would not erase its deficit. x.comÂ
Ur-Energy is an under-followed way to play a US uranium shortage, since America mines only a sliver of what its reactors burn. The import ban cut Russian supply, nuclear is the only baseload that scales for AI, and mines take years to permit and ramp. Unlike crowded enrichment play Centrus, the $671M in-situ miner would re-rate hard on a real production ramp; a small position. It fails if uranium spot rolls over, or the ramp slips and cash burn bites before volumes arrive. x.comÂ
Cameco's CEO said in a recent fireside chat that the nuclear renaissance is still very early and that uranium prices do not reflect actual supply and demand. Cameco covers everything except enrichment, which it is watching closely. The stock has not closed a week below its 30-week moving average since last year, a strong trend that points to more upside, and indicators have reset near a breakout; a weekly close above resistance is the next step. x.comÂ
Uranium is a conviction trade, so short-term price action should be ignored. Demand for new nuclear power keeps building: per @quakes99, Amazon signed a $3B, 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy that adds 190 MW of new nuclear generation at Calvert Cliffs in Maryland. x.comÂ
Uranium Royalty is a royalty play on a widening uranium supply deficit. Q1 FY2027 net profit hit a record $16.3 million, with EPS of $0.10, double the $0.05 expected. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence sees this year's mine-supply deficit widening to 18% of demand in 2027, and UROY holds royalties on McArthur River and Cigar Lake. The chart is breaking out of a falling wedge, with $4.22 the trigger. x.comÂ
Cameco is the most interesting pure-play uranium producer thanks to good cost-curve positioning and a history of surviving pricing downturns. It also has exposure to conversion and to enrichment through Global Laser Enrichment, plus the optionality of a Westinghouse IPO. A post the author replies to calls Cameco the best company in the space on assets and management, while noting that Global Laser Enrichment is unproven and valuation is the only knock. x.com x.comÂ
Uranium has a second window of opportunity because the Iran war showed energy-importing countries they must control their own power. The Hormuz crisis spiked energy prices worldwide, and Korea, Taiwan and even Germany are moving back to nuclear, which runs 24/7 with zero carbon and stores years of national power in a small space. After Fukushima, uranium fell to $16 a pound against roughly $40 production costs. Rick Rule says the war opened a new window, and the stocks have not caught up. x.com … Show more
Terrestrial Energy and NuScale Power are the favorite speculative picks in the market because nuclear is one of the few realistic ways to meet power demand from AI and data centers at scale. Both are volatile, high-risk names, which is exactly why the upside is asymmetric if nuclear develops as expected over the coming years. On risk/reward today, nuclear ranks ahead of solar as a long-duration theme. x.com x.comÂ