Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com  x.com 

Tech stocks should recover to near all-time highs at or after earnings season, since they trade at historically low valuations of 16-22x forward earnings despite strong growth. Value stocks' fundamentals have weakened significantly from already expensive levels. Markets are pricing the worst-case war scenario, but both sides are negotiating and the US holds the cards. x.com 

Tech stocks face a grim May 2026 as the market story rolls from Hormuz and oil to a financial and economic crash and deflation. Brent and US crude are selling off, with a run through $68 and further downside possible, contrary to calls for $250+ oil. Banks are also at risk as the stagflation narrative gives way to deflation. x.com 

Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

US large caps offer a chance to buy into the world's largest economy at a discount, because the US PEG ratio has derated in recent months to levels very similar to the rest of the world. Never bet against America. x.com 

US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com  x.com 

Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.com 

Hyperscalers' forward P/E has contracted 20% even as estimates ramped, making it rare to see things get much worse. Rising GPU rents and new lows in availability make the AI fears a fade; hyperscalers should lead. The next two weeks will be gut-wrenching amid the OpenAI raise, Anthropic S-1, Fed, midterms and mutual-fund selling into year-end, but that is the time to buy. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's bottom for this move is not in yet, even if tech makes new highs later this year. The recent semis and tech crash blew up the Situational Awareness fund, and more forced unwinds by stressed funds are likely, as in 2022 when 3AC and Celsius were not the end. Martin Shkreli shares a report that two more AI hedge funds, AIPR and VARA, are down 30-50% this month. Prices still have a way to go before retesting the spring range for a bounce. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com