US large caps offer a chance to buy into the world's largest economy at a discount, because the US PEG ratio has derated in recent months to levels very similar to the rest of the world. Never bet against America. x.com
Jimmy Investor
Former Equity Analyst
Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com
Improving breadth and GPUs massively outrunning depreciation costs put US-equity risk/reward heavily in bulls' favour. Some 59% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average; the Nasdaq 100 is positive over five trading days, and small caps bounced off their 200-day average. Buy gradually, as the selloff may not be completely over. x.com
The S&P 500's elevated P/E masks concentration in just a few stocks, making index exposure less appealing than selective stock picking for risk and reward. Its P/E is well above the ten-year median; digging into individual constituents looks more sensible than buying all 500. x.com
Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com x.com
Nvidia, Broadcom and Meta look attractively valued on PEG ratios, while Apple looks expensive. A PEG below 1 signals mispriced growth and above 2 means things are getting expensive; Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet rate as reasonable. x.com
Costco, Apple, Intuitive Surgical, Alphabet and MSCI are amazing companies priced too high for their growth. Costco trades at 46x earnings on high-single-digit growth, Apple at 32x forward on low-double-digit EPS growth, and Intuitive Surgical at 38x forward on low-teens growth. Alphabet, the most attractive, is 33x operating income excluding investment gains. MSCI is 34x trailing on low-double-digit growth; S&P Global is better, cheaper and extremely high quality with similar growth. x.com … Show more
US stocks are getting cheaper even as they rise, because earnings are booming and P/E multiples are declining, making this the opposite of a bubble. x.com
A ten-year low in forward P/E makes hyperscaler valuations look more than reasonable. Goldman Sachs' chart tracks Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle as a basket. x.com
The AI-led S&P 500 peak will likely end somewhere between 2000 and the Nifty Fifty: painful, but not a 34-year Japan-style wait. Breadth is ugly, with record index highs while most stocks bleed; @RestlessCentaur notes over 70% of S&P 500 stocks are down more than 10%. Today's leaders trade around 30x forward earnings, while the 2000 and Japan tops were two to three times pricier. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
US large caps and the strongest AI names can rip higher after the Fed's rate hike pushed stocks down to critical support. If SPY holds above the mid-750s this week, it could rise above 765 over the next couple of weeks, implying 15-25%+ gains in AI stocks such as Marvell, Bloom Energy, Nebius, Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Dell, HPE and Qualcomm. Tech names Meta, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft also look bullish as rotations continue. x.com