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Market Research Newsletter, News Verification
SoftBank Group may be due to catch up as its key holdings rally while its stock stays flat. Arm is up 23% since Friday, OpenAI is now set to go public in September, and SoftBank-backed SB Energy has filed to go public. Masayoshi Son could be on the mend, and it may be time to buy. x.comÂ
OpenAI is winning, making SoftBank stock worth seriously considering as an investment. The view is still at the consideration stage. x.comÂ
SoftBank stands to benefit as OpenAI's comeback plays out, with the general discourse already shifting this week. Codex revenue doubled in seven days, while Anthropic still needs to solve its compute situation, consistent with the call that GPT-5.5 and new Codex features would recapture share and OpenAI's earlier compute spending would sustain its lead. x.comÂ
SoftBank's $64.6 billion OpenAI commitment leaves it exposed to a loss-making company that needs more funding, while junk-rated borrowing costs around 10% and credit spreads have climbed. An OpenAI IPO matters greatly; despite SoftBank's good assets, a price roughly another 50% lower could look like value. x.com x.comÂ
SoftBank's OpenAI stake would be worth $156 billion at a $1.2T valuation, against SoftBank's entire current market cap of $228 billion. Per @kimmonismus citing the WSJ, OpenAI is in early talks to raise at $1.2T+, up about 41% from March's $852B, with an IPO expected in 2027; it reports over 1B active users and 18% Q2 revenue growth to $6.7B, though operating margins declined. x.comÂ
Arm's float is tiny, with about 90% held by SoftBank, while its architecture is set to become ubiquitous in every device, so a sharp rise in the stock is no surprise. x.comÂ
SoftBank's leveraged AI bets look increasingly stressed even with markets at highs supporting its leverage. Its five-year CDS reached 424 basis points, up 24 basis points on the day; the cited estimate puts five-year cumulative default probability at 29.8%, approaching the kind of strain seen in CoreWeave. x.comÂ
Elon Musk's loss in his case against Sam Altman over OpenAI's future is bullish for OpenAI's supply chain, including Cerebras, CoreWeave, Oracle and SoftBank. x.comÂ
SoftBank owns about 90% of Arm, leaving a locked-up float that looks almost certain to be pushed far higher in the early innings of a GPU mania. The bet is not on Arm's technology but on others squeezing that tight float. x.com x.comÂ
SoftBank Group is drawing a steep risk premium as debt markets lose patience with its highly leveraged venture bets. Its 5-year credit default swap spreads surged past 380 bps in September 2026, erasing a mid-year rally that had briefly pulled them under 280 bps. As tech capital shifts from speculative venture funding to asset-heavy infrastructure, carrying massive debt without clear cash-flow timing is getting increasingly expensive. x.comÂ
SoftBank, Alphabet, Amazon, SK hynix, Nvidia and TSMC are not too late to buy: most trade cheaper on forward P/E than in April 2025 despite a 254% average gain. Models are about twice as intelligent since then, agentic AI is just taking off and robotics, which extends AI into physical work, has barely started. Goldman Sachs estimates AI agents could lift monthly token use 24-fold from 2026 to 2030, to 120 quadrillion. Some of the best-positioned names still trade below the market multiple. x.com … Show more
