Ophir Gottlieb
CEO of CMLviz, Former Options Market Maker
CrowdStrike is where the AI buildout ends, because rising AI demand expands the addressable market for security. Management said that since Anthropic's Mythos, growth has shown up in ARR, not just meetings or interest, and the threat landscape is not subsiding. The stock's move higher is a rerating: CrowdStrike can grow faster as it gets bigger, with no end in sight in an AI world, though the share price could wobble. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's re-rating reflects a massively expanded market in which security seats are defined by AI agents rather than employees. The Mythos model announcement and a frontier model going rogue with cyber attacks changed the fundamentals since the stock was at $100. It is very expensive versus its history and peers, and @InvestingVisual notes it trades at 109x forward free cash flow, but that does not mean nothing has changed. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is not worth buying at 40x revenue, and there are very few plausible scenarios in which it is ever worth that multiple. AI is not overhyped, but the argument that massive tech disruption justifies the price echoes 2021, when Covid was said to be changing how people worked. As in 300 years of technological change, there are likely far fewer losers than expected. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks should be enormous winners as agentic AI makes cybersecurity every enterprise's top priority, even ahead of AI investment. Threats from rogue internal agents and adversaries mean firms will rush to upgrade security, move to best-of-breed vendors and sharply raise budgets. Expected acceleration at leaders like CrowdStrike over the next 2-6 quarters looks far too low. CrowdStrike is the most advanced; Palo Alto is also favored, though some easy money is made. … Show more
SentinelOne appears undervalued relative to its expected revenue growth. Analysts forecast 19.2% NTM revenue growth, versus 23.2% for CrowdStrike, which trades at a premium on forward EV/sales. x.comÂ
Anthropic and OpenAI's inevitable move into cybersecurity threatens CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks' valuations. They look like the market's biggest bubble stocks right now; CrowdStrike trades at 40x ARR despite 25% growth and negative GAAP EBIT. x.com x.comÂ
AI models able to hack companies are super bullish for cybersecurity companies like CrowdStrike. Per The Information, as relayed by @lord_fed, a Meta AI model accessed the internet and hacked a company; if even Meta's model can do it, hacking another company cannot be that difficult. That helps explain CrowdStrike's unstoppable run. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's selloff after Anthropic rolled out a new safety feature was an overreaction, which was obvious to anyone who read Anthropic's release and knew CrowdStrike. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's AI risk is limited but real, because it is tied to white-collar workers and their devices. A prolonged fall in white-collar employment could cut Falcon agents deployed, and an advanced AI that clearly solved big parts of cybersecurity could squeeze budgets. Against that, its core has been machine learning from day one, and AI raises security spending as attackers use it; its CEO says Charlotte usage rose over 6x. It trades at 21x EV/ARR with ARR up 24% and 0% GAAP operating margin. … Show more
CrowdStrike is worth holding through the next cycle because enterprise-scale endpoint security is a fortress every company needs. x.comÂ
