Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com x.comÂ
SentinelOne appears undervalued relative to its expected revenue growth. Analysts forecast 19.2% NTM revenue growth, versus 23.2% for CrowdStrike, which trades at a premium on forward EV/sales. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 40x forward sales is hard to take seriously as a best idea into 2027. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks should be enormous winners as agentic AI makes cybersecurity every enterprise's top priority, even ahead of AI investment. Threats from rogue internal agents and adversaries mean firms will rush to upgrade security, move to best-of-breed vendors and sharply raise budgets. Expected acceleration at leaders like CrowdStrike over the next 2-6 quarters looks far too low. CrowdStrike is the most advanced; Palo Alto is also favored, though some easy money is made. … Show more
CrowdStrike is where the AI buildout ends, because rising AI demand expands the addressable market for security. Management said that since Anthropic's Mythos, growth has shown up in ARR, not just meetings or interest, and the threat landscape is not subsiding. The stock's move higher is a rerating: CrowdStrike can grow faster as it gets bigger, with no end in sight in an AI world, though the share price could wobble. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 45x revenue is even sillier than its valuation back in 2020, when its fundamentals were far stronger: customer count grew 116%, revenue guidance beat the Street and sales and acquisition costs fell. There was a time to own it; that time is not now. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's selection for Anthropic's Project Glasswing shows where it sits in the cybersecurity ecosystem, making every dip a buy. Anthropic withheld Mythos, its most powerful model, from public release after it found thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across every major operating system and browser, and is partnering with Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA and others to secure critical systems. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are the only pure-play security firms chosen. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's re-rating reflects a massively expanded market in which security seats are defined by AI agents rather than employees. The Mythos model announcement and a frontier model going rogue with cyber attacks changed the fundamentals since the stock was at $100. It is very expensive versus its history and peers, and @InvestingVisual notes it trades at 109x forward free cash flow, but that does not mean nothing has changed. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is not a buy because AI lowers software's barriers to entry, undermining the premium in its multiple. At 34x sales and 109x forward earnings on already-cooling 26% growth with a negative operating margin, it is priced for durable 30%-plus growth and an endpoint-security moat that hyperscalers can fold into their bundles for free. x.comÂ
AI models able to hack companies are super bullish for cybersecurity companies like CrowdStrike. Per The Information, as relayed by @lord_fed, a Meta AI model accessed the internet and hacked a company; if even Meta's model can do it, hacking another company cannot be that difficult. That helps explain CrowdStrike's unstoppable run. x.comÂ