Alibaba and JD.com have grown far beyond what their flat share prices reflect. Alibaba trades near its 2016 price of about $108 while annual revenue rose from $15.7B to $148.4B, almost 10x. JD.com is back at its 2019 price of about $26.5 while revenue grew from $67.2B to $187.2B, nearly 3x. With both charts finally starting to improve, 100%+ upside is absolutely on the table. x.com 

JD.com is mispriced because its equity stakes and holdco net cash alone exceed its market cap, as if JD Retail core did not exist. Analysts fixate on the drag from consolidated New Businesses, which blurs their view. A sum of the parts values JD Retail core on a conservative EBIT multiple after stripping out JD Healthcare and JD Industrials profits, then adds the listed stakes in those two and JD Logistics, equity-method stakes at book value, and adjusted holdco net cash. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

JD.com is a mispricing story, not a turnaround: the Amazon of China at a fraction of the valuation. It trades at about 0.2x sales versus about 3x for Amazon, holds $16B in net cash and has a $5B buyback. All 10 covering analysts rate it a buy with an average target near $38; the price target here is $68. x.com 

JD.com's share price should follow its free cash flow, which jumped 599% last quarter, and it has completed a $1B share buyback. x.com 

JD.com should reach $40 fairly fast once Chinese government stimulus, expected very soon, is announced and the stock breaks back above $30. Earnings were good, and the move down was not warranted. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba remains undervalued because its accelerating cloud business can carry the stock while other segments lag. Cloud revenue growth sped up to 45%, a strong acceleration on a higher base, and AI revenue posted a 12th straight quarter of triple-digit growth. Total revenue rose only 9%, margins were very low and China commerce keeps disappointing. Modeling $100B of cloud revenue in five years, fair value is $182 and the one-year target is $203, with a lower exit multiple reflecting China risk. … Show more

Alibaba, JD.com, Nio and Baidu are criminally undervalued and could act as a hedge in the next broad market downtrend, over a 12-18 month horizon. Fundamentals explain the underperformance: retail sales turned negative year over year and new home sales are down 27%, showing years of PBoC easing have failed to reach the real economy. But that is exactly when the greatest buying opportunities form, much as with semiconductors like AMD in late 2024 and early 2025. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba's market cap is only about 10x the next 12 months' sales of its cloud business, so the e-commerce behemoth comes for free. The cloud business now has a $24 billion revenue run rate, growing 38% year over year and still accelerating, and it is early days in China. A post the author replies to counters that Alibaba Cloud's margins are only 3-5% versus AWS's 30%, but Google Cloud's margins three to four years ago versus today show how that can change. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Baidu and Alibaba look primed with Trump visiting China, while JD.com is set up to break its long-term downtrend line. x.com