Alibaba's market cap is only about 10x the next 12 months' sales of its cloud business, so the e-commerce behemoth comes for free. The cloud business now has a $24 billion revenue run rate, growing 38% year over year and still accelerating, and it is early days in China. A post the author replies to counters that Alibaba Cloud's margins are only 3-5% versus AWS's 30%, but Google Cloud's margins three to four years ago versus today show how that can change. x.com  x.com 

Baidu and Alibaba look primed with Trump visiting China, while JD.com is set up to break its long-term downtrend line. x.com 

Alibaba's $10.2 billion Hong Kong share placement shows its cash burn has caught up with it, and more dilution is likely. Core China ecommerce makes roughly $30 billion of flat EBIT, half of it reinvested in quick commerce to defend share against PDD. Cloud and AI earns $2 billion of EBIT growing 35% but burns about $10 billion a year in AI-model opex. Pro forma EBIT of about $7 billion collapses after $20-25 billion of annual capex, so Alibaba will keep tapping equity markets. x.com 

Alibaba looks undervalued at a 52-week low, with a $229B market cap against expected 2027 operating income of $90B and double-digit growth anticipated for the next few years. x.com 

Alibaba remains undervalued because its accelerating cloud business can carry the stock while other segments lag. Cloud revenue growth sped up to 45%, a strong acceleration on a higher base, and AI revenue posted a 12th straight quarter of triple-digit growth. Total revenue rose only 9%, margins were very low and China commerce keeps disappointing. Modeling $100B of cloud revenue in five years, fair value is $182 and the one-year target is $203, with a lower exit multiple reflecting China risk. … Show more

Alibaba is no longer worth owning when better opportunities exist. The case for it as a China hedge was a macro feeling applied to a single company, and it ignored Jack Ma being yanked away and a lack of cloud growth while leaning on share buybacks and looking too cheap to ignore. Despite its discount to US companies, other stocks, such as GitLab and Airbnb, now look much more compelling. x.com 

JD.com is one of the few China internet names whose 2026 earnings risk skews up, so its multiple can rerate on beats rather than a sentiment recovery. Its logistics-backed retail core has been resilient, quick-commerce losses should narrow as the 2025 investment cycle matures without needing a macro recovery, and international expansion is measured. Overweight with a $38 December 2026 target, 9x 2027 earnings. Risks: share loss to Pinduoduo and Alibaba, margin pressure, a weaker China. x.com 

JD.com's share price should follow its free cash flow, which jumped 599% last quarter, and it has completed a $1B share buyback. x.com 

Alibaba is tough to hold because it is splitting investment between e-commerce and AI, creating massive execution risk. AI is so capex-hungry that, as Western examples show, Alibaba cannot spread spending and still reach comparable results. The market sees China e-commerce spending, including the quick-commerce race, as having no ROI, and is right. Replies argue Alibaba has no choice; it might still make it, but the risk is that its AI push slows. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alibaba should be taken seriously within the next three months, trading at just 10 times 2028 earnings. x.com  x.com