Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Tesla is hard to be bullish on because Elon Musk clearly doesn't really care about it right now. Recent Tesla news is mostly that Optimus is taking longer than expected and is extremely hard, while Musk tweets constantly about SpaceX, setting its year-end ARR goal at $100 billion and targeting $1 trillion of revenue by 2030. The two companies may still merge at some point. x.comÂ
Demand for a single way to invest in Musk's vision supports the case for a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Most investors spoken with want that option; the merger looks much closer than most expect, and Kalshi puts its chance before 2028 at 77%. If forced to own one of the two with a merger in prospect, SpaceX is preferable to Tesla because of Musk's ownership structure. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's standalone upside is less clear at today's prices because a potential SpaceX exchange hinges on the premium Tesla holders receive and their share of the combined value. If SpaceX keeps executing at this pace, its upside, or that of the combination, looks clearer than Tesla's standalone upside. Execution remains a risk, and the valuation already discounts considerable optimism. x.comÂ
Tesla and SpaceX are both worth owning because Tesla will merge with SpaceX in 2027. Kalshi puts the odds of a merger before 2028 at 60%, after President Trump called Musk one of the greatest tech founders. x.comÂ
A Tesla-SpaceX merger would unite an unrivalled mix of space, AI, Optimus, connectivity, Cybercab, Roadster, robotaxis and bitcoin into a $100T company in the making. Their combined 30,221 bitcoin would make them the sixth-largest corporate holder. The deal would be welcome only at an attractive price for Tesla shareholders: at least three SpaceX shares per Tesla share, or no deal. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's latest reveal has no financial viability for shareholders yet because anything like it may not reach roads before 2035. Like Optimus in 2021, it is cool but not viable yet. SpaceX shareholders should get Tesla at a bargain after Tesla takes a serious beating: Musk owns 49% of SpaceX and already controls its vote, so a depressed acquisition price would give them a better deal while consolidating his control. The merger looks like a matter of when, not if; its price is the question. x.com … Show more
A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.comÂ
A prospective Tesla-SpaceX merger into X Holdings gives holders of both companies a potentially nearer-term catalyst. The KookLetter reports that Barclays now considers the merger a go and expects an announcement imminently. x.comÂ
A Tesla-SpaceX merger could dilute Tesla shareholders while giving Musk greater voting control. The possible 15% dilution remains unconfirmed; Tesla shareholders could take on the risk as control consolidates, so a merger is not automatically a win for them. x.comÂ
SpaceX's orbital compute is a much bigger opportunity than Tesla's robotaxi, shifting merger gains toward Tesla holders over longer horizons. Robotaxi exceeds Starlink; Optimus needs more time and vast superintelligence. At today's share-price ratio versus no merger, Tesla holders are ~1.6x better off in 2031 and ~5x in 2036, versus ~2x and ~1.3x for SpaceX holders in the model. A roughly 30% Tesla premium balances 2031 gains; a roughly 50% Tesla discount balances 2036 gains. x.com x.comÂ