M Mohan
Private Equity at IncVangal, Former Microsoft Ventures Director
Medicare Advantage insurers Humana, UnitedHealth and CVS should rally after CMS finalized a 2.48% average 2027 payment increase, far above the near-flat January proposal. CMS projects over $13 billion in additional payments to plans in 2027. TD Cowen's Ryan Langston had expected a more tepid 1% to 1.5% bump. The lobbying worked. x.comÂ
Healthcare is the clearest place money is moving, and UnitedHealth is the preferred name here. It beat earnings and raised its 2026 profit forecast. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's rebound still has a Medicaid problem because care costs are outpacing state funding. Q3 operating profit rose to $6.6bn from $4.3bn a year earlier, but Medicaid is still expected to lose money in 2026. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's collapse was driven more by fear than fundamentals, making it one of the biggest opportunities in years, reminiscent of Meta in 2022. Fraud accusations led nowhere as the DOJ dropped its investigation, and peers Humana and CVS recovered from the same cost underestimation and beat later. With over $420B in revenue and deep ties to US employers, UnitedHealth is too big to fail and could survive even a fine. That same logic pointed to Berkshire being the undisclosed buyer. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's potential earnings recovery and margin expansion offer a fundamental case for its emerging Stage 2 uptrend. EPS is expected to grow 53%, from $20.47 in 2026 to $31.31 by 2029, while revenue is projected to rise from $448B to $511B; a weekly bull flag has broken out. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth is exposed as health insurance costs become unaffordable for employers: an industry that lives by price gouging will die by it. US employers face the largest health insurance cost hike since the Affordable Care Act began, with a 25% rise expected in 2027 after a massive drop in exchange enrollment. Employer-based health plans now look set to go the way of pensions and become extinct. x.comÂ
Managed-care insurance cash flows usually care less about AI bond yields than leveraged hyperscaler debt, making a managed-care sleeve preferable to chasing an AI bounce. UnitedHealth rose about 2.8% alongside Eli Lilly and Walmart after Deutsche Bank upgrades, while semiconductors weakened. x.comÂ
US healthcare and biotech stocks are coming under distribution as the attack on healthcare returns. Per Dr Alex Kenton, the No Surprises Act has knocked millions of people off insurance rolls, hurting hospitals, and a new Justice Department investigation targets Cigna, UnitedHealth and CVS over allegedly using Claritev to fix prices. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's debt has to come down to a manageable $20-30B, which would also cut interest expense, and the institutions, TV contributors and big retail accounts pumping it like the next Nvidia are ignoring that. Health insurance is not going away, but the numbers matter more than the hype. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth remains essential to the US economy and still provides the best pay-and-collect mechanism for doctors and hospitals in the country. Per CNBC, its first-quarter adjusted EPS of $7.23 beat expectations of $6.57, and it raised its full-year earnings outlook. x.comÂ