Fund.TBD
Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Medicare Advantage insurers Humana, UnitedHealth and CVS should rally after CMS finalized a 2.48% average 2027 payment increase, far above the near-flat January proposal. CMS projects over $13 billion in additional payments to plans in 2027. TD Cowen's Ryan Langston had expected a more tepid 1% to 1.5% bump. The lobbying worked. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth, CVS and other managed-care insurers should get relief from the 2.4% Medicare payment upgrade for 2026. UnitedHealth was already the only megacap stock with a positive one-month gain. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's potential earnings recovery and margin expansion offer a fundamental case for its emerging Stage 2 uptrend. EPS is expected to grow 53%, from $20.47 in 2026 to $31.31 by 2029, while revenue is projected to rise from $448B to $511B; a weekly bull flag has broken out. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's rebound still has a Medicaid problem because care costs are outpacing state funding. Q3 operating profit rose to $6.6bn from $4.3bn a year earlier, but Medicaid is still expected to lose money in 2026. x.comÂ
Healthcare is the clearest place money is moving, and UnitedHealth is the preferred name here. It beat earnings and raised its 2026 profit forecast. x.comÂ
Managed-care insurance cash flows usually care less about AI bond yields than leveraged hyperscaler debt, making a managed-care sleeve preferable to chasing an AI bounce. UnitedHealth rose about 2.8% alongside Eli Lilly and Walmart after Deutsche Bank upgrades, while semiconductors weakened. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth is exposed as health insurance costs become unaffordable for employers: an industry that lives by price gouging will die by it. US employers face the largest health insurance cost hike since the Affordable Care Act began, with a 25% rise expected in 2027 after a massive drop in exchange enrollment. Employer-based health plans now look set to go the way of pensions and become extinct. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's collapse was driven more by fear than fundamentals, making it one of the biggest opportunities in years, reminiscent of Meta in 2022. Fraud accusations led nowhere as the DOJ dropped its investigation, and peers Humana and CVS recovered from the same cost underestimation and beat later. With over $420B in revenue and deep ties to US employers, UnitedHealth is too big to fail and could survive even a fine. That same logic pointed to Berkshire being the undisclosed buyer. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's Q2 confirms it is back to underpromising and overdelivering, removing any remaining doubt. Per the quoted results, adjusted EPS of $6.38 beat the $4.85 estimate, the medical cost ratio improved 270 bps to 86.7%, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to $19.50-$20.00. CEO and congressional share purchases, plus Americans' need for the most important health insurer in the world, bode well for the company and the stock. x.com x.comÂ
Humana is showing a clean distribution top amid managed-care margin pressure. Elevance's margin miss hit the sector on July 15, Humana's Q1 adjusted EPS fell 11% on margin compression, and it is divesting its roughly $900M Gentiva stake. The chart shows a bearish engulfing candle, a volume surge, a trend break and RSI divergence; a close below the trigger line targets $372.70, then $356.38. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth remains essential to the US economy and still provides the best pay-and-collect mechanism for doctors and hospitals in the country. Per CNBC, its first-quarter adjusted EPS of $7.23 beat expectations of $6.57, and it raised its full-year earnings outlook. x.comÂ
