FinXKing
Software Developer at Microsoft, Tesla/NVIDIA Commentary
Adobe is hard to want to own after an open-source project reimplemented its full software suite, as @math_fournity reports. x.com
Adobe looks dead because AI can now generate images in 0.6 seconds, undercutting the value case for buying it. The stock is losing its 200-month average, a 20-year average price that only a truly dead name breaks, making it something to avoid. x.com
Adobe's moat may be that no artists want to build their own Photoshop or Premiere, even as everyone in finance thinks they can vibe code Bloomberg and has the money to try. x.com
Adobe remains the best example of what not to buy because AI has had minimal impact and its backlog is slowing rapidly. Management chose user acquisition over monetization, as Duolingo did, leaving open whether users stay when prices rise; for now, waiting to monetize looks the same as being unable to. Free or cheaper tools that match its specialist subscriptions could cut usage, RPO and cash generation. When acceleration and margin expansion are everywhere, owning neither makes little sense. … Show more
Adobe is completely cooked: its low P/E is low for a reason, and there are plenty of better companies to buy. @StockSavvyShay notes that Anthropic's new Claude Design lets users create prototypes, slides and one-pagers by talking to Claude, pushing into territory associated with Figma and Adobe without requiring much design experience. x.com
Adobe is heavily oversold, and some of the best money is made when a story goes from very bad to just bad, before it turns good. Per the Wall Street Journal, Adobe is launching CX Enterprise, an AI agent platform for business marketing tasks, with 30+ partners including Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia and AWS. x.com
Adobe is shaping up as PayPal 2.0, a stock influencers will pump while no one makes money. Its conference call was a complete dumpster fire, with the CEO and CFO looking checked out. The mention of SEMrush and the talk of a freemium model drew only ridicule. x.com
Adobe's core value is being eroded because gen AI increasingly excels at what Adobe did better than anyone: generating and editing images, video, audio and designs. Adobe likely has no proprietary data advantage, or at least none visible, the gap a quoted post says would leave it more exposed to AI disruption. Bulls may know better. x.com
Adobe's professional switching costs make fears of a one-shot replacement look arbitrary. Users would have to retrain for years and migrate established production systems across its many apps; the comparison with Duolingo's streaks and virtual badges is about inconsistent disruption fears, not necessarily a bearish call on Duolingo. x.com x.com
Adobe's problem is no longer valuation but bad sentiment toward software companies. It fell after hours in sympathy with ServiceNow despite trading around 15x trailing and 10x forward earnings while still growing 10%, and none of that matters right now. To recover, Adobe needs more collaborative projects and joint events with leading AI companies so it is seen as definitively part of the future. x.com