Justin Banks
Growth & Momentum Trader, Founder of Wolves of Wealth
Amazon is a generational buy at $250 because AWS alone could be worth far more than the whole company today. AWS is projected to reach $600B in annual recurring revenue by 2036, and at 40% margins and a 30x multiple that implies a $7.2T valuation, nearly 200% above Amazon's current market cap. The rest of Amazon is effectively free upside, and AWS alone could beat the S&P 500. x.comÂ
Amazon is funding the AI race and getting the money back through AWS. It is set to invest another $5B in Anthropic, with up to $20B more to come, and Anthropic in turn commits to spend over $100B on AWS over the next decade. Amazon still has not made a new all-time high, and it is very early. x.comÂ
Amazon's record AI spending looks backed by AWS demand, despite pressure on near-term profit. AWS grew 39% to $46bn, and CEO Andy Jassy projects growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Quarterly capex reached $77.3bn, almost $20bn above expectations; the Q4 profit guide missed and retail ads softened. AWS acceleration makes the drop worth buying. Overweight; $370 target. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS grew 39% on $46 billion of quarterly revenue, outweighing concern over the stock's 10% after-hours decline. Amazon is a buy below $200. x.comÂ
Amazon's negative free cash flow and far-off AWS guidance add to its investment risk. Free cash flow is -$42 billion. True_yes_man describes Jassy extrapolating fourth-quarter AWS revenue at 40% growth for five years. That guide cannot be taken seriously; it resembles the Tesla and Nvidia playbook of projecting years ahead to support the market into the midterms, then recalibrating later. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth still drives its valuation, making the post-earnings decline look temporary despite misses elsewhere. AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, above the $45.4 billion expected; Jassy sees growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Earnings, advertising and Q4 sales guidance missed expectations, while trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion. x.com x.comÂ
AWS alone justifies Amazon's valuation, making it the market's best risk/reward. Q2 revenue rose 36.7% to $42.2B, and operating income rose 63.6% to $16.6B. Revenue growth accelerated five quarters to an 18-quarter high; backlog is $496B and demand exceeds capacity. At $66.5B annualized operating income and 30x, AWS is worth ~$2T, leaving other businesses effectively free at Amazon's lowest-ever 20x forward P/E. x.comÂ
Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.comÂ
Amazon looks cheap against its growth and cash-generating businesses. At about 3.5 times trailing revenue and a roughly 20 trailing P/E, it has $776B in sales, AWS growing 37% year over year, plus advertising and marketplace cash engines. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth remains strong despite slight earnings misses. AWS revenue rose 39% year over year in Q3. Increased 2027 capex could still weigh on the shares in the short term, even if demand continues to rise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's hundreds of billions in AWS GPU spending are generating billions in additional sales without the operating-margin payoff expected from that investment, worsening its credit risk. The attached AWS chart shows quarterly revenue rising from $23.1 billion in Q3 2023 to $42.2 billion in Q2 2026, alongside operating income rising from $7 billion to $16.6 billion; the concern is the return on the GPU spending. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth makes the earnings dip a buying opportunity. Sam Badawi says AWS grew 39% to $46 billion in the quarter; DudeWhoInvests says AWS is projected to grow more than 40% in 2027 and 2028. Buying the dip looks wise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
