The Wheelie Investor
Options Trader, Agentic Trading, Builder of AgenticTG
AMD's bull case rests on CPUs, not GPUs, and its monster quarter confirms that CPUs are in shortage. The idea that AMD would overtake Nvidia with cheaper GPUs was and still is wrong, but AMD is executing well on CPUs, which makes it a beast. x.comÂ
On-the-ground data, including OCP rack vendors' reports of what they hear from customers, gives a clearer picture of AMD's CPU outlook. AMD's CPUs and GPUs are both in a growth cycle, leaving it on track to outgrow the market. The 14 million GPU figure through 2030 was always above the team's models, as it was for many others; the 2027 GPU sales estimate raised in the discussion was Morgan Stanley's, not theirs. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com x.comÂ
AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.comÂ
AMD should do well, replying to a post that says its EPYC CPUs are in massive demand and taking share from Intel. x.comÂ
The CPU basket is not worth buying now because much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run this year. It is a hold for investors with a low cost basis. x.comÂ
AMD's Multi-model Signal remains long through the CPI-driven AI selloff, treating the dip as a buying opportunity. Hot CPI revived rate fears, with the CoreWeave unwind adding to the broad decline; AMD fell 5.7% in one session. x.comÂ
AMD has plenty of room to run as it breaks all-time highs, because AI demand is exploding and the company is just getting started. The economy is still growing strongly and tech innovation is accelerating, while bears have called for a crash for years as the market kept climbing. x.comÂ
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.comÂ
AMD's roughly 10% Q4 price increase on Instinct AI accelerators, Radeon GPUs and chipsets reflects demand-backed pricing power. The direct cause is rising TSMC foundry fees, with 5nm wafers near $18,500 and 3nm at $20,000-22,000, and TrendForce, citing Nikkei, expects up to 10% more in 2027; as a fabless company AMD passes the cost on. Ryzen CPUs are excluded so AMD does not cede gaming and midrange PCs before the holidays, as Intel raises PC CPU prices 10% for a third time. x.comÂ