Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.comÂ
AMD's secured wafer supply from TSMC and ramping MI450 demand undercut Morgan Stanley's 43% cut to its AMD GPU demand forecast, especially while it leaves Nvidia's forecast untouched. The market is not buying the downgrade. x.comÂ
Morgan Stanley's sharp cut to AMD's GPU demand forecast raises downside risk, though its original sales estimate may simply have been too high. The bank cut its 2026-30 forecast from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units, or 43.3%, while leaving Nvidia's unchanged. AMD was called to fall 60% when the market opens. x.comÂ
Skipping AMD's dip would be a mistake given broad analyst buy support on Stock Analysis. Its snapshot shows 39 Strong Buy and five Buy ratings among 55 analysts while shares are down 6%. x.comÂ
AMD has more AI accelerator market-share potential than the 7% forecast suggests. The more likely outcome is at least 15%-20% share, versus the forecast quoted from @pequityresearch. x.comÂ
AMD is the last AI name left to crack on valuation and should fall below $200-$225, likely within 12-15 months. AI suppliers such as Arm, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Astera Labs are already getting smoked on valuations, while hyperscalers like Alphabet and Microsoft are being punished. x.com x.comÂ
US stocks face a potentially bigger selloff as rising inflation compounds concerns about AI spending. PCE inflation reached a four-month high of 3.6%, increasing pressure on the Fed to raise rates; Alphabet shares fell after disappointing earnings, slowing ad growth and more than $51 billion of quarterly capital investment. x.comÂ
Intel stands to benefit from a CPU demand theme tied to Meta's Muse AI agents, whose announcement coincided with Intel, AMD and Arm jumping on September 21, 2026. AMD and Arm fit the same theme but still need comfortable chart traction before they earn a position. The thesis is weakly held and must be confirmed by charts and by quarterly earnings and outlooks. x.comÂ
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.comÂ
AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.comÂ