Wey How
Thematic Position Trader, Technology Stocks & Trend Following
Intel stands to benefit from a CPU demand theme tied to Meta's Muse AI agents, whose announcement coincided with Intel, AMD and Arm jumping on September 21, 2026. AMD and Arm fit the same theme but still need comfortable chart traction before they earn a position. The thesis is weakly held and must be confirmed by charts and by quarterly earnings and outlooks. x.comÂ
Arm is benefiting from a broader repricing of CPU demand for AI inference. It is up 33% in a week after raising demand for its new AGI CPU to $2B, and Meta's Muse AI agent accelerated the move, also lifting AMD and Intel. x.comÂ
Intel's production was reportedly affected by a pause at its Israel fabs, which should benefit competitors Arm and AMD. Both look good on that basis. x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
CPU designers AMD, Arm and Intel should still outperform as agentic AI activity grows, because tech transitions and share shifts can be monetized whatever the cycle's direction. The end state of AI fundamentals remains bearish, with markets compressing multiples despite earnings beats, but the path will be a bleed down punctuated by violent rallies as investors who missed the AI rally chase it. CXL and, to a degree, optics are the other real themes. x.comÂ
AMD is having a breakout year as hyperscalers spend more than $600 billion on infrastructure in 2026, about $450 billion of it on AI. Its CPU market share has climbed to 29.2%, and partnerships with OpenAI and Meta show it is no longer playing second fiddle to Nvidia. Its MI300 series is winning data-center workloads, and it is executing on its roadmap with a consistency that deserves respect. x.comÂ
Intel being treated as a Muse winner is silly, especially with the stock rising more than Meta itself. Meta is already an Amazon Graviton CPU customer for agents, and per @FredaDuan's estimate, serving 100 million Muse daily users takes about 1 GW, only about 0.1 GW of it in the CPU layer, with under $1 billion of CPU content. Intel's valuation before Muse already assumed broad AI proliferation, so Muse-like products from rivals, as @jonnagap expects, do not change that. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.comÂ
Intel's latest earnings call confirmed it is executing on the three semiconductor bottlenecks it addresses, CPUs, advanced packaging and fab capacity. Beyond the obvious CPU shortage, its higher 2026 capex is a great sign, since Intel has often called a capex lift the key signal of 14A adoption. x.comÂ
Intel's turnaround is real, but its valuation already assumes a lot goes right while Foundry has much to prove. Revenue grew 25% to $16.1 billion, data center revenue jumped 59%, and the CEO says Intel can meet only about half of CPU demand, with ASPs up 48%. But Foundry lost $2.1 billion on $5.8 billion of revenue, only $293 million of it external, with no high-volume marquee customer. After a roughly 225% run to $120, Intel is worth about $634 billion, already paying for much of the comeback. … Show more
Intel stands to benefit as agentic AI drives more CPU demand, with Intel, AMD and Arm direct beneficiaries. A potential SK Hynix partnership, U.S. government backing and a continuing foundry turnaround add support. Technically, Intel shows one of the best cup formations in the market, with price tightening just below its downtrend line after a big run and weeks of cooling off. x.comÂ
