ThePortablePortfolio
Undercovered Value Investor, EM/AI Infrastructure/Crypto Rails
AMD is having a breakout year as hyperscalers spend more than $600 billion on infrastructure in 2026, about $450 billion of it on AI. Its CPU market share has climbed to 29.2%, and partnerships with OpenAI and Meta show it is no longer playing second fiddle to Nvidia. Its MI300 series is winning data-center workloads, and it is executing on its roadmap with a consistency that deserves respect. x.comÂ
AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.comÂ
Data-center and AI-chip demand underpins the case for owning Advanced Micro Devices. x.comÂ
Intel and AMD face a real shift in competition as NVIDIA moves into CPUs faster and more directly than expected. On NVIDIA's earnings call, Jensen Huang said its new Vera CPU platform will contribute $20 billion of standalone revenue this year. The pressure on Intel and AMD is not just fund rotation but a genuine change in the competitive landscape. x.comÂ
AI data-center spending flows beyond GPUs and operators into networking, optics, power and cooling. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell supply chips; Arista, Nokia and Credo connectivity; Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum optics; Vistra, Constellation and Bloom power; Vertiv and Modine cooling. Meta's $140B spending this year illustrates the scale, per a commenter with whom the point is agreed. x.com x.comÂ
AI security rules could shift frontier inference into monitored data centers, lifting demand for AMD and Nvidia chips and Micron and SanDisk memory. Agents attacked 400+ banks; US labs cut off abusive users, unlike downloaded open weights. Licensing is a forecast, and these four look undervalued at today's closes. Meta lists $356B in future leases and $455B in other commitments, mostly cloud capacity such as CoreWeave and Nebius plus equipment; those recipients are being sold off. x.com x.comÂ
AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.comÂ
AMD still has further upside. Headlines around the OpenAI 6GW deal, the Meta deal and the Helios rack unveiled at CES 2026 framed AMD as finally catching Nvidia, but asking whether AMD can beat Nvidia is the wrong question; the detailed reasoning is laid out in a separate article. x.comÂ
AMD's AI thesis is intact, and the current weakness is temporary macro noise. Raymond James upgraded AMD to Strong Buy with a $641 target, expecting the server CPU market to reach $201 billion by 2030 on a 44% compound annual growth rate as hyperscalers scale for agentic AI. Per Raymond James, AMD offers the cleanest mix of earnings leverage, pure-play data-center exposure and share gains against legacy compute. Hardware demand is accelerating. x.comÂ
Nvidia's deals trading compute for equity in AI companies are a win for everyone except AMD, and it is literally over for AMD. @LootJunkiee calls it Nvidia turning AI startups into its personal revenue stream, the definition of ecosystem domination, while @tickerade notes shares for compute, or for tokens as with OpenAI, is becoming a new revenue model for AI companies. x.com x.comÂ
AMD competes directly with Nvidia in AI training and inference chips, and its MI350 series is now shipping at scale. It has landed multi-year AI chip supply deals with both OpenAI and Oracle. x.comÂ
