Frank Curzio
Founder & CEO of Curzio Research, Wall Street Unplugged Host
AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.com
AMD is trading at its highest valuation in a decade, and another comparison puts it at about three times Nvidia's valuation. x.com
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.com
AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.com
AMD's valuation leaves little room for error even after stellar earnings. Sustaining 40% annual growth to 2030 gives $200B revenue and $80B net income at a 40% margin; at 20x earnings that is $1.6T, or about $990B discounted at 10%, versus $845B today. The market fears its acceleration coincides with the final stage of AI capex growth, as customers diversify from NVIDIA, a tailwind that may fade as capex growth slows after 2027. A solid hold, but new buyers should wait for a bigger decline. … Show more
AMD may be the biggest asymmetry in semiconductors: a more than 2.5x valuation premium to NVIDIA for half the growth and no moat is hard to justify. When the market turns against AMD and AI momentum funds, the drop will come all at once and get nasty. x.com
AMD and Nvidia both stand to gain from an AI chip market that AMD sizes at $1.4 trillion by 2030, growing 45% a year. Token use rose 158x in two years, and running models now takes 60% of compute, driven by agents, a shift AMD expects to be structural. AMD's Helios racks are in full production, Anthropic is locking in up to 2 GW and OpenAI up to 6 GW, and AMD says it is closing its software gap. Nvidia keeps an edge because CUDA is still better and omnipresent. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
AMD's numbers remain mediocre, and the stock already trades at what it would earn in 2027 and beyond. @JonahLupton argues AMD is a 2027 story, when growth is expected to accelerate to 60-65% year over year. x.com x.com
AMD's fundamentals are very strong, but about 50x 2028 estimated earnings is a price that cannot be normalized for any company, under an investment philosophy that may be wrong. Per PrivPubInvestor, the stock rose from $450 to almost $650 in two weeks on CPU demand, analyst price-target hikes, new partnerships and the Helios rollout. x.com x.com
Nvidia offers better risk/reward than AMD because the growth gap between them is small while the valuation gap is wide. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings about 45% a year through 2028 versus about 43% for AMD, yet trades near 15x 2028 earnings against AMD's 30x. AMD is still liked long term, and MI450 and Helios could be huge and win it share, but the market already prices in much more of that upside. Nvidia's estimates can also keep rising, at larger scale and with stronger margins. x.com … Show more
Long Nvidia against short AMD could work because investors should always own the best of breed, as CrowdStrike returned 304% after its July 2024 outage while SentinelOne returned 0%. Nvidia is the clear best of breed in semiconductors yet trades at a multiple far below its peer's, with 2-3x the growth and a far stronger bottom line. x.com x.com
