AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com  x.com 

AMD is trading at its highest valuation in a decade, and another comparison puts it at about three times Nvidia's valuation. x.com 

AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.com 

AMD's valuation leaves little room for error even after stellar earnings. Sustaining 40% annual growth to 2030 gives $200B revenue and $80B net income at a 40% margin; at 20x earnings that is $1.6T, or about $990B discounted at 10%, versus $845B today. The market fears its acceleration coincides with the final stage of AI capex growth, as customers diversify from NVIDIA, a tailwind that may fade as capex growth slows after 2027. A solid hold, but new buyers should wait for a bigger decline. … Show more

AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.com 

Nvidia offers better risk/reward than AMD because the growth gap between them is small while the valuation gap is wide. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings about 45% a year through 2028 versus about 43% for AMD, yet trades near 15x 2028 earnings against AMD's 30x. AMD is still liked long term, and MI450 and Helios could be huge and win it share, but the market already prices in much more of that upside. Nvidia's estimates can also keep rising, at larger scale and with stronger margins. x.com  … Show more

AMD is a bearish setup, featured as the short idea in the weekend newsletter. x.com 

Long Nvidia against short AMD could work because investors should always own the best of breed, as CrowdStrike returned 304% after its July 2024 outage while SentinelOne returned 0%. Nvidia is the clear best of breed in semiconductors yet trades at a multiple far below its peer's, with 2-3x the growth and a far stronger bottom line. x.com  x.com 

AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.com 

AMD is the last AI name left to crack on valuation and should fall below $200-$225, likely within 12-15 months. AI suppliers such as Arm, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Astera Labs are already getting smoked on valuations, while hyperscalers like Alphabet and Microsoft are being punished. x.com  x.com