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Oguz Erkan

Investor, Founder of Capitalist Letters

4 Aug, 21:41Latest

AMD's valuation leaves little room for error even after stellar earnings. Sustaining 40% annual growth to 2030 gives $200B revenue and $80B net income at a 40% margin; at 20x earnings that is $1.6T, or about $990B discounted at 10%, versus $845B today. The market fears its acceleration coincides with the final stage of AI capex growth, as customers diversify from NVIDIA, a tailwind that may fade as capex growth slows after 2027. A solid hold, but new buyers should wait for a bigger decline. x.com

AMD

22 May, 17:21

AMD is approaching its Nvidia moment and sits around fair value even at record highs. UBS sees the server CPU market near $170B by 2030; at 75% x86 and a 50% AMD share, that is about $64B of revenue, versus $34B of total revenue today. Goldman's $1T AI capex view adds about $60B from GPUs at a 10% share. At a 35% net margin and 25x exit multiple discounted at 10%, that is about $736B versus a $767B market cap, before non-data-center businesses. Exceptional businesses tend to surprise upward. x.com x.com

AMD

Daniel

Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

13 Oct

AMD

AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.com

Trade Whisperer

Memory Engineer & Data Scientist, Founder of Blue Pink Candles

28 Oct

SKHY

SK hynix's record earnings and five-year volume and spec agreements make its valuation look too low. Quarterly revenue reached KRW104.62T, up 32%, and operating profit hit $63B against a $785B market cap, below AMD's and less than half Tesla's. Its planned KRW100T (~$75B) shareholder return would be one of the world's largest, signaling conviction and unusual demand visibility. AI-inference 3D DRAM is coming by 2030; a reasonable valuation is all that is sought. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Research & Invest

Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background

5 Aug

AMD

AMD's growth worries should ease after BofA raised its EPS estimate by 34%, to about 4x current levels, which also addresses concern that the stock trades at a premium. x.com

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

15 Sep

AMD

AMD may be the biggest asymmetry in semiconductors: a more than 2.5x valuation premium to NVIDIA for half the growth and no moat is hard to justify. When the market turns against AMD and AI momentum funds, the drop will come all at once and get nasty. x.com

Frank Curzio

Founder & CEO of Curzio Research, Wall Street Unplugged Host

5 Aug

AMD

AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.com

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

29 Oct

AMD

AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.com

Investing visuals

Technology Investor, Visual Company Research

26 Sep

AMD

AMD is trading at its highest valuation in a decade, and another comparison puts it at about three times Nvidia's valuation. x.com

Banana3

Professional Trader/Investor, Real Estate Developer, 25 Years’ Experience

29 Oct

NVDA

ORCL

TSM

AMZN

AVGO

Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com

Stone Fox Capital

Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital

20 Oct

AMD

AMD has more AI accelerator market-share potential than the 7% forecast suggests. The more likely outcome is at least 15%-20% share, versus the forecast quoted from @pequityresearch. x.com

Ross Gerber

CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, Portfolio Manager of GK ETF

27 Oct

NVDA

AVGO

AI skepticism leaves Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron looking cheap on forward earnings. Their forward P/E ratios are 14, 18 and 5, respectively; the market may eventually stop doubting AI. x.com

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