TBU
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Commentary
CPU designers AMD, Arm and Intel should still outperform as agentic AI activity grows, because tech transitions and share shifts can be monetized whatever the cycle's direction. The end state of AI fundamentals remains bearish, with markets compressing multiples despite earnings beats, but the path will be a bleed down punctuated by violent rallies as investors who missed the AI rally chase it. CXL and, to a degree, optics are the other real themes. x.comÂ
The view that CPUs are the next memory gets ahead of itself, because CPU makers cannot raise prices the way memory and optics makers have. Their low-double-digit price hikes only offset bill-of-materials inflation from memory and TSMC wafers. Measured as a share of hyperscaler spend, CPU still loses share, and hyperscaler CPU revenue looks unlikely to outgrow capex in 2026. AMD and Intel didn't crush data-center numbers, and most CPU value will accrue to TSMC and memory makers. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.comÂ
Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.comÂ
AMD is the last AI name left to crack on valuation and should fall below $200-$225, likely within 12-15 months. AI suppliers such as Arm, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Astera Labs are already getting smoked on valuations, while hyperscalers like Alphabet and Microsoft are being punished. x.com x.comÂ
Intel stands to benefit from a CPU demand theme tied to Meta's Muse AI agents, whose announcement coincided with Intel, AMD and Arm jumping on September 21, 2026. AMD and Arm fit the same theme but still need comfortable chart traction before they earn a position. The thesis is weakly held and must be confirmed by charts and by quarterly earnings and outlooks. x.comÂ
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.comÂ
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.comÂ
The broad AI trade is among the most undervalued markets in years on a growth-adjusted basis because demand for intelligence keeps rising. Usage of open-weight and closed frontier models keeps climbing, while GPU rental prices are up around 80% this year despite exploding supply. Nvidia, AMD and SpaceX share this demand bet as long as both lines keep rising. x.comÂ
AI agents benefit CPU and memory suppliers such as Arm, AMD and Qualcomm more than Nvidia and Broadcom; Marvell, TSMC and Micron also gain. Per @amitisinvesting, OpenAI has launched Dots as its answer to Meta's Muse, and more agents mean much more compute, which helps explain why semis have kept rising as the agent wars heat up. x.comÂ
Intel and AMD face a real shift in competition as NVIDIA moves into CPUs faster and more directly than expected. On NVIDIA's earnings call, Jensen Huang said its new Vera CPU platform will contribute $20 billion of standalone revenue this year. The pressure on Intel and AMD is not just fund rotation but a genuine change in the competitive landscape. x.comÂ
AMD has more AI accelerator market-share potential than the 7% forecast suggests. The more likely outcome is at least 15%-20% share, versus the forecast quoted from @pequityresearch. x.comÂ
