Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
Morgan Stanley's sharp cut to AMD's GPU demand forecast raises downside risk, though its original sales estimate may simply have been too high. The bank cut its 2026-30 forecast from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units, or 43.3%, while leaving Nvidia's unchanged. AMD was called to fall 60% when the market opens. x.com
Nvidia's pressure on neoclouds to remain Nvidia-only threatens AMD's access to those buyers. SemiAnalysis reports multiple neoclouds offering AMD GPUs or other chips were denied access to GTC Berlin; it says hyperscalers are unaffected, while some neoclouds are considering offering rival chips quietly. AMD is a $100 stock. x.com
Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com x.com
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.com
AMD's secured wafer supply from TSMC and ramping MI450 demand undercut Morgan Stanley's 43% cut to its AMD GPU demand forecast, especially while it leaves Nvidia's forecast untouched. The market is not buying the downgrade. x.com
AMD's valuation leaves little room for error even after stellar earnings. Sustaining 40% annual growth to 2030 gives $200B revenue and $80B net income at a 40% margin; at 20x earnings that is $1.6T, or about $990B discounted at 10%, versus $845B today. The market fears its acceleration coincides with the final stage of AI capex growth, as customers diversify from NVIDIA, a tailwind that may fade as capex growth slows after 2027. A solid hold, but new buyers should wait for a bigger decline. … Show more
AMD is a bearish setup, featured as the short idea in the weekend newsletter. x.com
On-the-ground data, including OCP rack vendors' reports of what they hear from customers, gives a clearer picture of AMD's CPU outlook. AMD's CPUs and GPUs are both in a growth cycle, leaving it on track to outgrow the market. The 14 million GPU figure through 2030 was always above the team's models, as it was for many others; the 2027 GPU sales estimate raised in the discussion was Morgan Stanley's, not theirs. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
AMD may be the biggest asymmetry in semiconductors: a more than 2.5x valuation premium to NVIDIA for half the growth and no moat is hard to justify. When the market turns against AMD and AI momentum funds, the drop will come all at once and get nasty. x.com
Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom look set to see their sales channels stuffed with inventory. x.com
AMD's bullish hardware case depends on realized GPU prices and costs, not shipments alone: lower selling prices need not lower manufacturing costs. In a conditional September 23 model stress, GPU prices 15% below the reference path with fixed unit costs cut weighted 2030 revenue from $347.84B to $314.76B and free cash flow from $90.13B to $68.59B, about 24% lower. These are weighted outcomes across 16 scenarios, not the standalone Base case. x.com
AMD's numbers are very good, but capex nearly 3x the expected figure means the stock is going to sell off. x.com
