Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.com 

Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Amazon's AWS grew 39% on $46 billion of quarterly revenue, outweighing concern over the stock's 10% after-hours decline. Amazon is a buy below $200. x.com 

Amazon's negative free cash flow and far-off AWS guidance add to its investment risk. Free cash flow is -$42 billion. True_yes_man describes Jassy extrapolating fourth-quarter AWS revenue at 40% growth for five years. That guide cannot be taken seriously; it resembles the Tesla and Nvidia playbook of projecting years ahead to support the market into the midterms, then recalibrating later. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's shares may be near a top as Jeff Bezos sells another $4.07 billion of stock. His sales are a good signal: he top-ticked the shares in late 2021. x.com 

The prospect of trillion-dollar revenue makes the bearish case for Amazon hard to accept. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says no business has reached that scale, but there may be two in the next 5–10 years. x.com 

Amazon looks set to rally into its Q1 report and then fall again, because heavy non-AWS investment weighs on operating income and the stock works in harvest years, not investment years. A clean operating income guide needs a huge AWS beat to flow through, and people already put out very high AWS numbers. Layoffs help, but not enough against data-center and fulfillment efficiency comps. It is a crowded long that has crushed Microsoft on relative performance, with market caps approaching parity. … Show more

Amazon is one of the market's great opportunity-cost traps. After its earnings and historic capex spending, the stock risks moving sideways for a long period, locking up capital that could earn much better returns elsewhere. x.com 

Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com  x.com 

Amazon warrants caution in the short term because its capex spending is getting wild and free cash flow is taking a hit, expected to turn negative this year. x.com