DVB
Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder
dLocal faces stronger competitors and margins that will keep falling. Many of its regions are a constant uphill battle; even if it does well long term, payments stocks are uninvestable. x.comÂ
dLocal's take rates face merciless, structural pressure from regional competition and market structure. Management, by contrast, expects only an asymptotic take-rate decline and nothing structural. The stock fell 8% after Q1 earnings. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
dLocal's diversified model makes its sharp selloff look unwarranted. x.comÂ
Fintech's slide looks like a broad rotation out of the sector rather than isolated company weakness, as investors buy the largest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout. SoFi is down 43% year to date, with similar weakness at Klarna, Shift4 and Toast, as capital leaves fintech, software and emerging markets for semiconductors, networking, memory and AI infrastructure names such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and Nebius. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said the decline bothers him. x.comÂ
Shift4 Payments may look cheap, but payment processing is a margin race to the bottom and a tough business. Companies with much stronger moats are a better use of capital, since paying fair value for a great business beats buying an OK business cheaply. @PronkDaniel notes it is growing strongly at 6.5 times estimated free cash flow while conceding its moat is questionable. x.comÂ
dLocal could be the Adyen of emerging markets, quietly building payment rails for the next billion consumers. It combines 25-30%+ growth, expanding margins and solid 2026 guidance with a surprisingly low valuation. x.comÂ
PayPal's growth has stalled and it faces too much fintech competition. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.comÂ
Shift4 is too cheap at these levels, essentially a private-equity-style vehicle in public markets that is hard to appreciate but runs a good playbook; Jared Isaacman is not selling out down here. Its Global Blue acquisition was poorly timed as US-Iran tensions crush international travel, Fiserv's turmoil hit payments, and AI angst weighs on software. Public investors can also choose easier-to-model stories with cleaner KPIs and capital structures. x.comÂ
dLocal is an overlooked picks-and-shovels play on emerging-market digital payments, combining real growth, real profitability and a huge runway outside the US. In the fourth quarter, payment volume grew 70%, revenue 65%, gross profit 38% and net income 87%. Full-year 2025 revenue crossed $1B for the first time, and adjusted free cash flow rose 110%. x.comÂ
SoFi is overvalued because it is just a bank, as it has been since inception. Member growth of 518% over five years while the stock fell 21%, cited by @StockSavvyShay, does not make it an opportunity, since the stock was extremely overvalued five years ago and subscriber growth does not justify the valuation. The fintech sector is trading poorly with little investor interest, so waiting means years of mediocre returns. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ