dLocal faces stronger competitors and margins that will keep falling. Many of its regions are a constant uphill battle; even if it does well long term, payments stocks are uninvestable. x.com 

dLocal sits in payment processing, a sector that 30 years of data show to be dead because margins are low. Fintech is just software, without the asset leverage that banks have. dLocal fell about 11% after EPS of $0.14 missed the $0.15 estimate, per TrendSpider. x.com  x.com  x.com 

dLocal's diversified model makes its sharp selloff look unwarranted. x.com 

dLocal's biggest risk is revenue concentration, with its top 10 customers making up over 60% of revenue, which makes it a Tier 3 rather than a Tier 1 company. Over time it needs to build a more diverse customer base. x.com 

dLocal still looks very early because it holds only about 10% wallet share with its merchants, versus 50-80% in a mature relationship, per dLocal's Pedro at the Goldman Sachs conference. The average merchant uses dLocal in about 12 of its 60-plus markets, up from 8. Take-rate compression is the key issue; if it slows as Pedro expects while TPV keeps growing, gross profit and free cash flow should improve sharply. Only about half of today's top 10 customers were there two years ago. x.com  x.com 

dLocal is growing nearly as fast as an LLM company yet trades at just 2x, so the dip is worth buying. x.com  x.com 

dLocal's business is materially better than in 2021, yet its valuation is far lower. It now generates nearly as much gross profit in one quarter as it did in all of 2021, while its market cap is $4B against a $20B peak in 2021. x.com 

dLocal's payment-volume growth is exceptional, so a declining take rate shouldn't worry investors while TPV and gross profit keep growing this fast. TPV rose 80% year over year in constant currency to $17.7B, the seventh straight quarter above 50%, and TPV and gross-profit guidance were raised. Net take rate fell to 0.72% from 0.84% as lower-margin local-to-local volume grew 141%, and Asia and Africa look weak. Management focuses on growth over take rate, though some slowdown would be welcome. … Show more

dLocal is still cheap at a low-teens free-cash-flow multiple while growing 25-35%. It needs so little capital to sustain hypergrowth that it pays out half its free cash flow as dividends, and with almost no stock-based compensation it can keep growing well above 25% for a long time. At 10-12x free cash flow it looks worth multiples of the current price. x.com  x.com 

dLocal remains one of the highest-conviction long-term holdings, a hated moat whose great results drew only a 5% after-hours gain. Per @mvcinvesting, Q4 revenue was $337.9M versus $296.1M expected, free cash flow doubled to $64.7M and payment volume grew 70%. For 2026 dLocal guides 50-60% volume growth and 27.5-32.5% operating profit growth, and it announced a $300M buyback. x.com