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Rose Celine Investments

Equity Investor

11 Sep, 13:24Latest

dLocal still looks very early because it holds only about 10% wallet share with its merchants, versus 50-80% in a mature relationship, per dLocal's Pedro at the Goldman Sachs conference. The average merchant uses dLocal in about 12 of its 60-plus markets, up from 8. Take-rate compression is the key issue; if it slows as Pedro expects while TPV keeps growing, gross profit and free cash flow should improve sharply. Only about half of today's top 10 customers were there two years ago. x.com x.com

DLO

3 Sep, 18:25

dLocal's runway is in emerging markets, and competing in Western markets would be a mistake. The US is mature, with take rates about 4x lower. Its US license is meant to let existing customers such as Temu collect US payments, not to compete with Stripe; margins will be small, but it is free incremental gross profit. Not all growth is equal: cross-border payments also earn FX, unlike local-to-local payouts, so gross profit and free cash flow per new dollar of volume matter more than TPV. x.com x.com x.com x.com

DLO

Philipp Haas

Founder of Haas invest4 Innovation Fund, Creator of investresearch

19 Mar

DLO

dLocal could be the Adyen of emerging markets, quietly building payment rails for the next billion consumers. It combines 25-30%+ growth, expanding margins and solid 2026 guidance with a surprisingly low valuation. x.com

Ashton Invests

Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research

17 Apr

DLO

dLocal is an overlooked picks-and-shovels play on emerging-market digital payments, combining real growth, real profitability and a huge runway outside the US. In the fourth quarter, payment volume grew 70%, revenue 65%, gross profit 38% and net income 87%. Full-year 2025 revenue crossed $1B for the first time, and adjusted free cash flow rose 110%. x.com

Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan

Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels

16 Oct

DLO

dLocal faces stronger competitors and margins that will keep falling. Many of its regions are a constant uphill battle; even if it does well long term, payments stocks are uninvestable. x.com

Deep Sail Capital

Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps

26 Oct

DLO

dLocal's diversified model makes its sharp selloff look unwarranted. x.com

Fede Sandler

Former IRO at Mercado Libre/Nubank, Forbes Columnist

14 Aug

DLO

The market isn't crediting dLocal for faster payment volume growth, which more than makes up for its lower take rate. Per @realroseceline, TPV grew 92% in Q2, and about 50% of the $127m of gross profit became operating profit, up from 44% last quarter, as gross profit rose 7% while operating expenses fell about 4%. The stock dropped roughly 10% after EPS missed by a penny before recovering most of the decline. x.com

DVB

Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder

14 May

DLO

dLocal sits in payment processing, a sector that 30 years of data show to be dead because margins are low. Fintech is just software, without the asset leverage that banks have. dLocal fell about 11% after EPS of $0.14 missed the $0.15 estimate, per TrendSpider. x.com x.com x.com

peony

Equity Investor & Researcher

14 May

DLO

dLocal is growing nearly as fast as an LLM company yet trades at just 2x, so the dip is worth buying. x.com x.com

TacticzHazel

Energy-Market Analyst, Long-Term Fundamental Investing

26 Oct

DLO

MELI

Excellent management makes dLocal, MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings three great companies to pick up at a discount after the Lula-election selloff. Their Brazil exposure sent them down 9%, 9% and 22% on claims that the investment climate had worsened, a claim worth questioning. x.com

Pernas Research

Founder of Pernas Research, Fundamental Equity Research, USAF Background

15 May

DLO

dLocal's take rates face merciless, structural pressure from regional competition and market structure. Management, by contrast, expects only an asymptotic take-rate decline and nothing structural. The stock fell 8% after Q1 earnings. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Biotech2k

Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery

17 Jun

DLO

dLocal's biggest risk is revenue concentration, with its top 10 customers making up over 60% of revenue, which makes it a Tier 3 rather than a Tier 1 company. Over time it needs to build a more diverse customer base. x.com

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