A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.com 

SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com  x.com 

Tesla could fall to a realistic value of around $150 a share, what a car company is worth, now that dream-chasing investors can go after SpaceX instead. That repricing would be painful for Tesla shareholders. x.com 

A possible SpaceX acquisition at $420-$550 a share is extremely bullish for Tesla. Brad Gerstner says SpaceX could acquire Tesla at that price. x.com 

Elon Musk's projected SpaceX revenue could make SpaceX and Tesla holders insanely rich. Musk predicts more than $2 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2033; that could imply a combined value of $38 trillion for the two companies. x.com 

Tesla's standalone upside is less clear at today's prices because a potential SpaceX exchange hinges on the premium Tesla holders receive and their share of the combined value. If SpaceX keeps executing at this pace, its upside, or that of the combination, looks clearer than Tesla's standalone upside. Execution remains a risk, and the valuation already discounts considerable optimism. x.com 

SpaceX's blowout earnings make its somewhat lofty valuation deserved. Elon Musk said it could exit 2027 at $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue, an ambitious forecast that looks achievable for SpaceX. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's AI upside depends on Elon Musk keeping AI inside the company. He could take it out and leave Tesla as a car company, so holders should not get too cocky; at current levels, $500 or $550 would still be hard to turn down. x.com 

Tesla's latest reveal has no financial viability for shareholders yet because anything like it may not reach roads before 2035. Like Optimus in 2021, it is cool but not viable yet. SpaceX shareholders should get Tesla at a bargain after Tesla takes a serious beating: Musk owns 49% of SpaceX and already controls its vote, so a depressed acquisition price would give them a better deal while consolidating his control. The merger looks like a matter of when, not if; its price is the question. x.com  … Show more

Keeping Tesla separate from SpaceX looks better for long-term shareholders because standalone businesses can receive more valuation credit. Tesla's stock trades on FSD and Robotaxi uptake and Optimus's intrinsic value, not Model Y sales or EV demand. Musk announced a committee to explore a merger, with a rumored $550-a-share takeout that would bring a quick pop. The chart targets $395, then $405, and $550 after a close above $440. x.com