HubSpot is a bullish pick. x.com 

HubSpot is a massive AI beneficiary because it lets customers spin up ad campaigns without a full-time employee or even an outside marketer. Yet its shares trade exactly opposite AI. x.com 

HubSpot shows that disruptors get disrupted, as AI forces CRM vendors toward outcome-based pricing that bills for results rather than users. KCR made that call in December 2025, and it materialized on May 7, 2026, when HubSpot moved its AI agents to outcome-based pricing and cut prices; the stock fell about 19% the next day. x.com 

HubSpot could have bottomed because its business held up through the stock's collapse while buybacks cut its share count. Q2 revenue grew 19.8% and free cash flow 44% year over year; net shares fell 4.4% last quarter. Shares trade at 17.5x free cash flow versus a two-year mean of 45x. All four models now agree. The 12-month bear, base and bull paths are $274, $317 and $360, respectively; November 4 Q3 results are the next test. x.com 

HubSpot is mathematically on track to accelerate, not die, because it has grown net new ARR faster than total revenue for about six straight quarters. Its failure to capture agent spending is a real and existential threat, but that is priced in and the game is not over. Exposure to SaaS remains small, so this is reasoning rather than table-pounding. x.com  x.com 

HubSpot barely needs to grow to justify today's valuation, given its current cash inflows, terminal value aside. That shows once the customer acquisition costs and growth spending in the P&L are accounted for. Reading through from IBM is silly, since IBM serves a totally different market. x.com 

HubSpot and Intuit have a meaningful chance to be AI winners even as the market destroys SMB software, because selling to small businesses is life on hard mode, as @travisk put it, which makes it moaty. The math is so hard that competition is thin and survivors gain share in downturns; they have aggregated customers at scale; AI agents favor full-platform adoption and clean data; and AI may spur many new small businesses. They still add customers, but the window is closing; they must accelerate. … Show more

ServiceNow's growth looks likely to keep slowing, yet it trades at 50x 2027 GAAP EPS versus 20-25x for Microsoft, Google and Amazon growing as fast or faster. Subscription revenue grew about 21%, but the customer base is flat, so growth relies on upselling modules. Operating margin dipped and stock-based pay rose. Customers are mixed on its AI products and delay over price. Big SaaS firms near 20% growth often slide faster than expected, and its long-term targets look hard to reach. x.com  x.com 

HubSpot is a long with much better management than peers, while monday.com is AI roadkill; the two are the only real comparables. Its valuation case needs realism, though: @CeleritasRe sees 2x forward sales as absurdly cheap if it reaches 30% terminal margins on 20% growth, but those margins are unlikely at that growth, and HubSpot is growing 17%. x.com  x.com 

HubSpot is the same great company at a completely different valuation, about 2x EV/sales and 10x EV/free cash flow versus 25x EV/sales five years ago. It is much bigger, still grows at solid double digits, has much stronger cash flow and high gross margins. x.com