Ashton Invests
Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research
Brookfield may be one of the safest undervalued stocks around, with a realistic path to triple over the next five years if execution stays strong. Its mix of infrastructure, power, asset management and long-duration capital makes it a boring business with huge upside rather than a lottery ticket. x.comÂ
Brookfield is becoming a much bigger, more powerful business than most realize. Management targets Plan Value of $140 a share by 2031 from $67, and 17% annual growth in distributable earnings before realizations to $11.6B, led by Wealth Solutions and carry-eligible capital rising to $600B. These are long-term targets, not guarantees, but they strengthen conviction. Its ~$265B of consolidated debt overstates risk, since only about 6% has recourse to Brookfield Corporation. x.com x.comÂ
The Brookfield ecosystem looks increasingly attractive long term, pairing Brookfield Asset Management's asset-light fee machine with Brookfield Renewable's exposure to the enormous power and infrastructure buildout. Westinghouse adds another potentially powerful growth engine tied to the nuclear renaissance. Brookfield has consistently allocated capital well across cycles, and its scale and access to capital create a formidable moat. x.comÂ
Brookfield stands to benefit from sustained demand for clean energy, AI data centers needing power it can build and finance, and companies turning to private credit as banks lend less. Its Oaktree holding provides exposure to that lending demand. Bill Ackman calls Brookfield an AI winner; despite the uncertainty, Brookfield remains highly attractive. x.comÂ
Brookfield can triple and still be a bad investment because its valuation is too high. Even compounding at the 24% annual rate @InvestInAssets cites, it trades at a P/E of 90 against a recent historic range of 7 to 15, and its EPS has swung up and down rather than climbing steadily over 14 years, which does not justify a stable high multiple. x.comÂ
Brookfield should make a lot of money from three long-term trends happening at once: more digital infrastructure, cleaner energy and countries pulling supply chains closer to home. Management sees decades of building projects such as power plants, data centers and transmission lines, with power for AI data centers the biggest and fastest-growing piece. x.comÂ
Brookfield Corporation is a top pick for a 15-year portfolio on business quality alone, setting valuation aside. As the king of real assets, it owns dams, power grids and premium real estate around the world, so owning it is like owning a piece of the world's vital infrastructure. x.com x.comÂ
Brookfield Corporation's accounts look like pure book cooking. It pays premium prices for acquisitions and then sets its own valuations on the assets once it owns them, so results that seem fine on the surface do not hold up on closer inspection. x.comÂ
Brookfield has one of the most underrated AI angles. It committed $100 billion to build a new AI cloud business and already has the permits, power and land in place. It trades at 16x distributable earnings while guiding for 20% annual growth through 2030. Its CEO calls AI the utility of the future, embedded in daily life without people noticing. x.comÂ
Brookfield Corporation looks very underpriced at $37 against management's $67 plan value per share, which it expects to hit $140 by 2031. Brookfield targets $16.8B of distributable earnings by 2031 including carry, a 24% CAGR, as a 10-15 year AI, power and infrastructure cycle needs private capital, and expects $25B of carried interest over ten years versus $4B in the last ten. A 25bp hike isn't material: as rates rose from 0.25% to 5% in 2022-23, AUM grew 33% and DE per share 41%. x.com x.com … Show more
Brookfield Corporation is not enticing near current valuations because of its accounting practices, of which office real estate is only the tip of the iceberg. @NickNemo17 notes Brookfield uses IFRS fair value for investment properties, so depreciation mostly disappears and investors must trust management's marks; before BPY was taken private it showed $321M of depreciation against about $100B of real estate. x.comÂ
Brookfield, Berkshire Hathaway, Investor AB, Constellation Software and BlackRock are the best true buy-and-hold names, because their exceptional management gives real confidence in long-term performance and compounding. x.comÂ
