Broadcom's Jalapeño chip deal with OpenAI is already priced in and margin dilutive. OpenAI guides to about 30 GW by 2030; at 30-40% Jalapeño, that is 9-12 GW, matching the 10 GW deal signed in October 2025. Selling finished chips, Broadcom books full ASPs but fronts wafers, HBM and other costs, about $15 billion per GW or $25-45 billion a year, at 50-60% margins at best. FY27 guidance already tops $100 billion; the bull case is maybe $120 billion. Broadcom even lends OpenAI the build money. … Show more

Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com  … Show more

Broadcom's custom silicon business stands to turn Anthropic's IPO funding into chip orders. The cash raised for Anthropic's compute spending would flow down the stack into Broadcom's order book. x.com 

Broadcom has taken the second pill, pointing to further downside for the stock. x.com 

Broadcom has no material upside left even if it hits its 2029 targets, because the AI capex boom is nearing its peak and its 25x sales multiple, up from 5x before 2023, would reset to about 10x. Hyperscalers are at their limits: Alphabet sold shares to raise funds, Meta is considering it and Amazon issued bonds, so frequent upward capex revisions are unlikely and a re-rating is inevitable. Nvidia, at about 20x forward earnings and 9x sales, is the better semiconductor bet. x.com 

Anthropic's $63B custom-chip deal bolsters Broadcom's case for growth from custom AI silicon. OpenAI's Jalapeño chip is seen as next, and the AI chip supercycle is just getting started. x.com 

Nvidia and Broadcom could both go bankrupt if the AI bubble does not last forever, because together they now back about $180 billion of customers' debt obligations. Cisco faced the same setup after the internet buildout, when oversupply collapsed prices, its revenue fell back to pre-bubble levels and $2.2 billion of vendor debt it had backed defaulted. For scale, Nvidia's net income in 2021, before the bubble began, was $4.4 billion. x.com 

Broadcom's demand case looks less credible because the person projecting a fourfold EPS increase by 2030 now says that demand comes from gamblers consuming tokens. The person raising roughly $100B to finance chips also warns that a lack of capital could stop the bubble. Broadcom is no longer appealing. x.com  x.com 

Broadcom is lining up more than $50B in financing for the custom AI chip it is building with OpenAI, a deal expected to close before year-end that could cover several gigawatts of OpenAI chip capacity. Few investors seem to want the shares, making this a very rare long-term opportunity. Holders include 22 members of Congress, among them Nancy Pelosi, as well as President Donald Trump. x.com 

Broadcom is more overvalued than people realize. Its forecast of $230B in revenue by 2028 has the market valuing it at roughly $2T, yet Meta already generates that much revenue and is far less cyclical. x.com  x.com  x.com