Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
Nvidia and Broadcom could both go bankrupt if the AI bubble does not last forever, because together they now back about $180 billion of customers' debt obligations. Cisco faced the same setup after the internet buildout, when oversupply collapsed prices, its revenue fell back to pre-bubble levels and $2.2 billion of vendor debt it had backed defaulted. For scale, Nvidia's net income in 2021, before the bubble began, was $4.4 billion. x.com
Broadcom is now borrowing money to lend to customers so they can buy its chips, while backstopping that debt itself. Its SEC filing puts maximum exposure at $29B from backstopping senior portions of a roughly $35B SPV that buys about 1 GW of Google TPUs leased to Anthropic. Reuters reported a possible new SPV of $60-70B senior secured plus about $30B junior debt, approaching $100B. Nvidia already has $117B of such financing and plans another $125B. x.com
Broadcom has taken the second pill, pointing to further downside for the stock. x.com
Broadcom's $30 billion guarantee on Anthropic's chip debt is a binary bet. Per @HedgieMarkets, Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35 billion private credit deal in which an SPV buys Google's custom AI chips and leases them to Anthropic, and Broadcom's residual value guarantee covers the shortfall if Anthropic misses a payment and the chips lose value. As @HedgieMarkets puts it, the company whose CEO said productivity hasn't shown up now guarantees the hardware meant to produce it. x.com
Broadcom's significant exposure to Anthropic's AI infrastructure spending and custom AI chips adds to its growth case. Annual EPS is projected to rise nearly fourfold from $8.06 LTM to $30.38 by FY2028, while the stock trades roughly 30% below its all-time high. x.com
Broadcom borrowing again signals a $1.8 trillion company running low on cash. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing the WSJ, Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion of financing for OpenAI's custom AI chip, with Apollo and Blackstone among the lenders it has approached. x.com
NVIDIA's use of vendor financing suggests it fears competition rather than expecting to win on its chips' merits. Cisco's experience is a warning about how that strategy can end. x.com
Broadcom is one of the easiest AI stocks to understand, built on custom silicon, networking and connectivity, with revenue set to double two years straight. Revenue is projected to go from $58B in FY26 to $115B in FY27 and $230B in FY28. Six customers drive that growth, including Google, Anthropic and OpenAI, which is both the bull case and the risk. x.com
Broadcom's Jalapeño chip deal with OpenAI is already priced in and margin dilutive. OpenAI guides to about 30 GW by 2030; at 30-40% Jalapeño, that is 9-12 GW, matching the 10 GW deal signed in October 2025. Selling finished chips, Broadcom books full ASPs but fronts wafers, HBM and other costs, about $15 billion per GW or $25-45 billion a year, at 50-60% margins at best. FY27 guidance already tops $100 billion; the bull case is maybe $120 billion. Broadcom even lends OpenAI the build money. … Show more
Broadcom's AI business is smaller and growing slower than Nvidia's networking unit alone, yet Broadcom is valued at $2.269T against Nvidia's $5.201T. Broadcom's Q2 AI semiconductor revenue rose 143% to $10.8B, with Q3 guided to $16.0B, while Nvidia's data-center networking revenue rose 199% to $14.8B. Hock Tan also said Google is diversifying away from Broadcom, and a Fubon roadmap shows Google using MediaTek for some TPUs. x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom AI chips and networking could drive earnings beyond what its valuation implies over 2-3 years. It is the favorite semiconductor opportunity now, preferred over NVIDIA without replacing it. AI semiconductor revenue is projected at about $58B in FY2026, $115B in FY2027 and potentially $230B in FY2028. At about 17x FY2027 consensus adjusted earnings, risk/reward is compelling if growth materializes; customer commitments add visibility, but delays and financing remain risks. x.com … Show more
Broadcom's demand case looks less credible because the person projecting a fourfold EPS increase by 2030 now says that demand comes from gamblers consuming tokens. The person raising roughly $100B to finance chips also warns that a lack of capital could stop the bubble. Broadcom is no longer appealing. x.com x.com
