Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
Aehr Test Systems stands to benefit as testing takes a larger share of expanding semiconductor capex. Teradyne CEO Greg Smith says test's share of semiconductor capex rose from 6.4% in 2025 to 8.1% in the first eight months of 2026, with conditions favorable for prolonged ATE growth. Data-center reliability is pushing testing upstream from systems toward packages and wafers, where Aehr dominates wafer-level burn-in. Aehr lacks a dedicated CPU segment. x.comÂ
Aehr Test Systems' selloff has been excessive, despite concern about Teradyne expanding into burn-in, given where the two actually compete, as @LIWEI_TWCapital's comparison shows. x.comÂ
Teradyne looks less dominant in CPO testing than expected after it acknowledged Advantest's capabilities on its earnings call. Per GF Securities, low TSMC SoIC yields have led the industry to cut 2026 CPO shipment forecasts, and Teradyne enters a 2H26 transition: Q2 guidance implies a 6% sequential drop, 55-60% of 2026 revenue falls in the first half, and it trades at 47x 2026 earnings. GF still sees long-term CPO upside, with 2027 CPO revenue possibly $800M. x.com x.comÂ
Aehr remains a concentrated, expensive way to own wafer-level photonics burn-in: its 10-K says silicon-photonics customers primarily drove that revenue growth, and FY2027 guidance of $130m-$150m could nearly triple FY2026 sales, yet shares value it at about 20x the guide. Teradyne's acquired photonic-chip test business is not material to its much larger sales; Aehr's top five customers provided 70% of FY2026 revenue, so orders matter more than the headline CPO opportunity. x.comÂ
Aehr Test Systems is the cleaner AI burn-in play, with a structural edge in wafer-level burn-in that nobody else has and a $41M single order from a hyperscaler in April. Its roughly 25x premium to Trio-Tech reflects equipment margins and that moat, not mispricing. Trio-Tech grew revenue 69% but its services margin fell to about 16% as low-margin AI testing grew, and it raised equity 30-40% below market, so at $13 it looks fairly priced. x.comÂ
Teradyne's growth is slowing, undercutting the AI-test growth valuation that lifted shares 242% in 2025. Q1 revenue nearly doubled to $1.28 billion and EPS of $2.56 beat the $2.04 estimate, but Q2 guidance of $1.15-1.25 billion is nearly 10% lower at the midpoint, and gross margin falls to 58-59% as one-off gains fade. Merchant GPU test revenue is only about $50 million this year against Advantest's entrenched lead, and about 70% AI exposure with concentrated customers magnifies tariff risk. … Show more
Aehr's AI burn-in growth case is intact, but confidence in its competitive edge may need to come down as Teradyne moves into high-power burn-in. Teradyne's Titan HP, already in production, combines system-level test and burn-in and could absorb spending on dedicated tools, pressuring Sonoma orders and pricing. Aehr still won about $6M of follow-on Sonoma orders for a hyperscaler's second AI chip, with no sign FOX-XP is replaced. If the market expands enough, revenue can grow as share falls. … Show more
Aehr Test Systems stands to benefit because testing is a bottleneck to scaling AI chips. Testing demand is about to surge. Investors did not question its price-to-sales ratio at 120, despite the current P/S objection. x.com x.comÂ
Teradyne's Q2 outlook coming in below its Q1 results is concerning when demand should be sky-high, and if later quarters look the same, its P/E would be too high to justify buying. x.comÂ
Teradyne shows leadership character in two of the hottest themes, semiconductor testing and robotics: it has posted back-to-back strong earnings and every dip to its 50-day moving average gets bought. It also leads industrial automation through Universal Robots and MiR, helping factories automate repetitive, high-precision, labor-heavy tasks. x.comÂ